The end of a cycle

Polish economy may slow in 2019

The slowdown of Poland's economy is coming, as its industry sector is at its lowest in years, economists warn. Poland’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is lower than not only Germany’s, but also than the Czech Republic’s and Hungary’s.

The first survey in four years, carried out among managers of several hundred Polish companies implies a slowdown in Poland’s industry sector. The drop of Poland’s PMI is below 50 points and is also a warning in the context of the entire Polish economy. 

Poland’s PMI compares poorly to that of not only Western European countries, but other V4 members such as the Czech Republic and Hungary.

After five quarters of intense GDP growth the economy’s slowdown will lower the growth from 5 to 4 percent during 2019

Arkadiusz Balcerowski of brokerage XTB points to the decrease in export, the first drop in production since 2016 and the lowering of employment. “The drop of PMI itself is but a warning signal of the slowdown in industry. The details coming from the survey do not fill us with optimism,” Balcerowski said.

He underlined, however, that this is part of a cyclical nature and that the economy’s growth dynamic has to simply slow down in the next quarters.

Poland was in the lead as a developing economy, now it is at the tail end of developed ones.

Economists from Santander Bank Polska predict that after five quarters of intense GDP growth the economy’s slowdown will lower the growth from 5 to 4 percent during 2019.

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