4 months ago
The delay of Brexit until after the European elections means that the new European parliament will have 751 representatives, not 705 as it would without the United Kingdom. This, in turn, will probably have a fundamental impact on the outcome of the elections.
According to the latest opinion polls, in Britain the Labour party will likely gather the most votes, 27.9 percent, followed by Nigel Farage’s freshly established Brexit Party with 19.9 percent, but that party could also surprise pollsters and score significantly better.
As a result, the majority of the UK’s 73 MEP seats will be divided between the center-left and the eurosceptics. This, in turn, would reduce the share of the European People’s Party to just 24 percent compared with 26 percent without the UK votes. And that is if the EPP manages to hold on to the seats likely to be gained by Hungary’s Fidesz and the Slovenian Democratic Party.
Also taking into account that a number of parties are lining up with Salvini’s EAPN (European Alliance of Peoples and Nations), Manfred Weber’s chances to become the next President of the European Commission are getting slimmer.
If the Brits vote as expected by the pollsters and Magyar Nemzet, the socialist, green, liberal and Macron-MEPs will have a combined vote of 41.5 percent.