Last week, the European Commission adopted the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, but to enter into force, it must be approved by the EU Parliament and member states in a vote at the EU Council. 

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Wednesday that Poland would, of course, vote against it, but he also noted there would be insufficient votes to block the agreement, reports Do Rzeczy.

Ratification of the EU-Mercosur agreement requires the consent of the European Parliament and 15 states representing at least 65% of the EU population. Therefore, to reject the agreement, a so-called blocking minority—a coalition of at least four states representing 35% of the EU population—is necessary.

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Law and Justice (PiS) MEP Waldemar Buda says Donald Tusk has simply waved a “white flag” on the matter.

“What’s the current state of play regarding the Mercosur agreement? Donald Tusk has waved the white flag. He says nothing can be done about it. The Polish People’s Party (PSL) says it’s fighting, but it’s not doing anything about it. The Polish commissioner and the government say they’re against it, but Piotr Serafin isn’t protesting at the College of Commissioners. Donald Tusk says there will be safeguard clauses, but everyone here knows they won’t be activated without German consent. And they’ll allow it because, like South America, they’d stop selling cars,” he said in a recording posted online.

The European Commission has made a political commitment to introduce an “emergency brake” that will allow it to react when too many sensitive agricultural products flow from Mercosur countries.

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According to an EU source, this commitment will then be translated into a legal act to be implemented in the European Union. It will include a bureaucratic mechanism for monitoring the market for the “most sensitive” products. The European Commission will inform member states and the EU Parliament about market developments every six months. If disruptions occur, bureaucrats will intervene.

The question is if the same money interests who pushed the deal through in the first place — agricultural corporations, chemical producers, and other business interests — won’t be able to influence this “mechanism” as well.