Hungary will hold its parliamentary election on April 12, with some polls showing a clear victory for the opposition Tisza party, but analysts are warning that victory for the Péter Magyar-led party is far from certain, writes Polish news outlet Do Reczy.
According to the portal, Hungarian expert András Biro-Nagy says the upcoming vote could prove to be one of the toughest tests for incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power. At the same time, the analyst estimates that international support – particularly from Donald Trump – could significantly strengthen the Fidesz leader’s position.
Biro-Nagy points out that a growing segment of society is tired of Orbán’s rule, and nearly half of Hungarians declare a desire for a change of government. Despite this, many voters still don’t believe there’s a viable alternative, and frustration with the current government may not be enough to overcome fears of political uncertainty.
The expert emphasizes that one of the key elements of the prime minister’s campaign is emphasizing strong international relations – with the U.S., Russia and China. According to the analyst, the government’s message has focused on creating a sense of a threat facing Hungary and convincing voters that a change of government could weaken the country’s position in an unstable global environment.
Biro-Nagy also points to differences in electoral strategies. While Peter Magyar has focused primarily on domestic issues, such as the cost of living and the quality of public services, Orbán has emphasized the importance of experience in international politics and presents himself as a guarantor of stability in difficult times.
According to the expert, despite Tisza’s lead in some independent polls, the current prime minister still has a realistic chance of victory. The election outcome may depend on whether the opposition convinces voters that it can offer a credible and safe alternative. In the analyst’s opinion, Orbán’s campaign is based on the public’s belief that change is the greatest risk, while the opposition is trying to argue that maintaining the current course is the threat.
Notably, during the last national election cycles, the left-leaning polls that predicting a close race that was neck and neck were incredibly off, sometimes as much as 20 points. Orbán scored a resounding victory during that vote. Polls seen as more right-leaning or even friendly to the Orbán government turned out to be vastly more accurate, which is an argument pro-Orbán forces are making once again.
There campaign has been plagued with cloak-and-dagger tactics. Magyar notably got his start in the opposition by releasing secret recordings he made between him and his ex-wife, Judit Varga, who is the country’s former justice minister. Just last week, a still image was posted which showed a bed with what appears to be cocaine next to it, with news media reporting it was the still image from a full sex tape featuring Magyar. Magyar has since made a statement about the tape on X.
Regardless of the outcome, it is clear that this race may only become more vicious as election day nears, which could lead to even polarization between Hungarians and the country’s politcal camps long after the race is decided.
