The price of diesel is already painful enough for Poles, but they can expect further pain ahead, says XTB raw materials analyst Michał.
Stajniak who told Polsat News on Wednesday that “Poles definitely have something to fear.”
According to industry portals, the current average price per liter of diesel in Poland is 8.69 PLN (€2.03), a historically high price, beating the previous record of 8.08 PLN/liter, set in mid-October 2022 — although the VAT rate on fuels was reduced from 23 percent to 8 percent. Without this, the average diesel price at gas stations would have exceeded 9 PLN/liter in October 2022.
“We’ve seen increases in gasoline and diesel prices of 17, 20, or 25 percent, depending on the base case. Crude oil prices, however, have risen significantly more. It’s clear that this doesn’t translate one-to-one, but considering the tense situation in the Middle East, in my opinion, this price is definitely too low,” admitted the expert.
According to Stajniak, the fact that double-digit fuel prices haven’t yet reached their peak is due to Donald Trump’s “game.”
“This war isn’t going his way at all, but he’s trying to salvage the situation by sending various messages,” the analyst said. He noted, for example, “the 15-point plan that was supposed to end the war, but which has already been rejected by Iran.”
“Over the last three weeks, little has changed to improve the situation… We don’t have a situation where the United States will take any action to secure oil supplies,” the XTB representative noted. He noted that the decline at the beginning of the week was due to the US president’s “big announcements.”
Michał Stajniak emphasized that the current price of a barrel of oil is around $100, although due to the situation in the Middle East, it should be around $120, writes Do Rzeczy.
The analyst noted that if the price reaches this level, Polish drivers will feel the pinch. “This price could rise to around 8 złoty per liter for gasoline, and approach 10 złoty for diesel,” the expert said. “These are unacceptable prices for Polish consumers,” he added.
State-owned Orlen announced some price reductions on Tuesday, while the Tusk-led government has as of yet to intervene. In the midst of negative employment data and layoffs, consumers are in a tough spot.
