With the election this Sunday, one poll indicates that, no matter their voting preference, more Hungarians expect the opposition Tisza party to win. The Iranytu Institute, which receives most of its funding from the Jobbik Party Foundation, which has been tied to the anti-Orbán opposition, also indicates that the elected parliament will consist of representatives of only two parties.
According to their poll, writes wPolityce, Tisza, led by Peter Magyar, enjoys the support of 41 percent of the general public, while Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party would receive 34 percent. No other party crossed the 5 percent electoral threshold in the survey. Among declared voters, Tisza received 51 percent support, while Fidesz received 40 percent.
Meanwhile, 62 percent of respondents believed Hungary was heading in the wrong direction, with 31 percent disagreeing. And 54 percent of respondents said they wanted Orbán’s government to be removed, while 38 percent wanted the current prime minister to remain in power.
The Iranytu Institute noted that while in February most respondents expected a Fidesz victory, in the latest survey 43 percent of respondents believed that Tisza would win Sunday’s elections, and 40 percent said Fidesz would.
The weekly “HVG” presented the Polymarket platform’s predictions the same day, according to which Tisza’s chances of victory were 69 percent, and Fidesz’s chances of winning a majority of seats in parliament were set at 31 percent. Hungarian authorities blocked access to the platform in January when it began predicting a Fidesz defeat, the daily “Nepszava” noted.
It should also be noted that other surveys, accused of being tied to the government, show Orbán with a slight lead.
Hungarians will elect 199 members of the unicameral National Assembly (Orszaggyules) on Sunday, 106 of whom will be elected in single-member districts, while the remaining 93 will be elected from nationwide party lists. Members of Parliament serve four-year terms.
Another wildcard is the role of the Our Homeland (Mi Hazánk) party. Some pollsters predict the party will cross the five percent threshold, which would potentially benefit Orbán. Even if his Fidesz party lands fewer votes than the opposition Tisza, in such a scenario, Our Homeland would likely choose Fidesz as a coalition partner over Tisza, allowing Orbán to continue to rule.
Už se začínají objevovat první relevantní predikce pro maďarské volby od dobrých prognostiků. 👇🇭🇺@MarcinPalade:
TISZA 44,6 % hlasů a 93,5 mandátů
FIDESZ 43,1 % a 96,5 mandátů
Mi Hazánk 6,7 % a 7 mandátů
národnostní menšiny 0-2 mandáty
=> Orbán by vládnul s Mi Hazánkem https://t.co/bZG0y7rhu6 pic.twitter.com/Vk2iDKQdCM
— Michal Sirový 🇨🇿 (@sssirda) April 6, 2026
