Ukrainian officials and military analysts are urgently calling for a radical shift in Western support, warning that Russia’s intensified air strikes involving mass-produced drones could lead to a critical turning point in the war.
The continued strikes on Ukraine’s industrial heartland are hindering its domestic arms production, making Western support even more critical, especially given Europe’s relatively low stock of arms and ammunition. German military analyst Gustav Gressel stresses that hits on Ukrainian industrial facilities are “crucial for the situation on the front,” warning that without immediate action, Ukraine’s “organized military resistance will collapse.”
In recent weeks, Russia has significantly escalated its aerial attacks on Ukraine, deploying an unprecedented number of long-range drones and missiles, according to German newspaper Welt.
Last Wednesday, Russia launched 728 long-range drones, followed by 597 more on Saturday night. These “mopeds,” as they’re known in Ukraine due to their distinctive whirring sound, are Shahed (Geran-2) kamikaze drones carrying up to 90 kilograms of explosives. With a range exceeding 1,500 kilometers, these drones can strike targets anywhere in Ukraine, from Kyiv to Odesa and even into western regions.
That being said, these drones are not particularly advanced technology. Instead, military analysts like Colonel Markus Reisner, head of the Institute for Officer Training at the Theresian Military Academy, note that Russia’s strategy involves overwhelming Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defenses with swarms of drones, combined with ballistic and cruise missiles. The aim, according to Russian calculations, is to cripple Ukraine’s energy supply, armaments industry, and civilian morale.
Now, experts are emphasizing the need for Ukraine to obtain both advanced defensive systems and long-range offensive capabilities to avert a collapse of its military resistance.
Russia is successfully targeting Ukrainian industrial facilities and residential buildings, and while Germany, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is in discussions with the U.S. to acquire additional Patriot anti-aircraft systems for Ukraine, confirmation is still pending.
“We are approaching a multi-stage agreement on new ones Patriot (anti-aircraft) systems and the associated rockets,” said Zelensky in a video message.
However, the relentless attacks are already having tangible effects on the ground. Russian forces have been making slow but steady advances, capturing approximately 550 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in June, the highest monthly gain this year, according to the “Deep State” open-source platform. To put this in perspective, Munich is about 300 square kilometers in size.
The effectiveness of Russia’s current air campaign is underpinned by its significantly expanded production of long-range weapons. Estimates suggest Russia is now manufacturing around 2,500 long-range kamikaze drones per month, with each Geran-2 drone costing between €30,000 and €60,000. The faster and longer-range Geran-3 model is already in production.
Russia’s success is also bolstered by strong support from its allies. The Geran attack drones are evolutions of Iranian Shahed models, and most components for Russia’s drones come from China. North Korea is reportedly sending thousands of workers to Russia to assist with arms production and, according to Ukrainian intelligence, could soon send up to 30,000 more soldiers. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has reaffirmed his unconditional support for Russia.
Russian drone tactics are evolving, with some drones now navigating at altitudes over 2,000 meters, beyond the reach of many mobile fire units Ukraine has relied on. Additionally, swarm attacks from multiple directions are designed to bypass defenders. Gustav Gressel warns that even Europe and Germany are unprepared for such concentrated attacks.
The core issue remains that existing Western weapon systems and their ammunition, such as Patriot defense missiles and German Iris-T systems, are too expensive and scarce to effectively counter Russia’s mass production of cheap drones in a war of attrition. For example, an Iris-T SLM short-range missile, costing several hundred thousand euros, can only engage targets up to 40 kilometers away, and only a few hundred are produced annually for both systems.
Despite these challenges, new defensive measures are emerging. Interceptor drones, like those from Ukrainian companies such as “Wild Hornets,” have shown initial success against Shahed kamikaze drones. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, recently highlighted Ukrainian “AI” interceptor drones on X.
There are also new systems being designed, such as Germany’s Skynex, which is already shooting down high numbers of combat drones in recent days. The system can fire up to 1,000 30mm programmable rounds a minute. These systems do not use expensive interceptor missiles but instead rely on cheaper rounds, which release a spiral pattern of tungsten shrapnel upon explosion.
Experts like Colonel Reisner suggest that “massive disruptive measures (e.g., spoofing navigation systems with fake GPS signals) and cheap but effective interceptor drones seem more promising than anti-aircraft tanks and expensive defensive missiles.”
Analyst Nico Lange adds that Western support with radar systems, acoustic, and optical sensors, along with the rapid expansion of combat capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum, could significantly aid in defending against drone swarms, as 40-50 percent of drones are already electronically repelled.
Beyond defense, there’s a growing consensus that Ukraine needs the means to strike offensively. Colonel Reisner emphasizes that key production facilities, such as the Geran-2 plant in Alabuga, 1,000 kilometers from Moscow, need to be disrupted through widespread attacks. However, Gustav Gressel believes the chances of such strikes are slim, as Russia has moved many production facilities beyond the reach of current Western weapon systems.
Military analyst Fabian Hoffmann advocates for a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach, arguing that “Western missile defense cannot keep pace with Russian missile production in all categories.” He suggests that Europe should adopt a “conventional, ‘countervalue’ strategy” by enabling Ukraine to target thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles at high-value targets deep within Russia.
