The methods of the forces seeking to overthrow the Serbian president are eerily similar to the pattern and appearance of what happened on Oct. 5, 2000, Tímea Zsivity, a researcher at the European Strategy Research Institute of the Eötvös József Research Center of the National University of Economics, told Hungarian outlet Hirado.
Protesters occupying bridges in Novi Sad, paralyzing traffic in a central part of Belgrade: from the outside, a revolutionary mood has developed in Serbia. However, this does not seem to be reflected in the support for the government. Who is behind the protests?
It is clear that the opposition voter base is behind those who are taking to the streets, whose goal is to overthrow Aleksandar Vučić. However, the current president’s voter base is still very stable. According to the latest survey, the Serbian Progressive Party has 48.7 percent support among the ruling parties, and this does not include the coalition partners. So, if we look only at the parliament itself, the parliamentary majority is still there and has stable support. What is happening on the streets is a completely different matter.
“It’s like history is repeating itself…”
Indeed, here I must refer back to the 1990s and October 2000, when the Milosevic regime was overthrown. However, when they draw a parallel between the two series of events and say: the Vučić.regime is crumbling, they are wrong. At the moment, this does not hold true. After all, when the law enforcement agencies, the internal affairs units and the military switched to the side of the protesters, to the side of the people, in the Milosevic era, that is when the fall of the regime at that time occurred. And when Milosevic’s voters also switched to the other side, to the Serbian democratic opposition at that time.
Tímea Zsivity, a member of the European Strategy Research Institute of the Eötvös József Research Center of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (Photo: hirado.hu)
“Can such a turn of events be expected now?”
The voters of the Serbian Progressive Party are very disciplined. As long as Vučic can maintain a policy of balancing, maintaining the balance between the West and the East, and as long as the voters of the ruling party are satisfied with his Russian and Chinese policies. Russia and China are also very popular among the voters of the Serbian Progressive Party, especially because these two states, as members of the UN Security Council, support Serbia’s Kosovo policy. That is, they do not accept Kosovo’s independence and consider it an integral part of Serbia.
You mentioned that the past is returning: Why is the previous turning point in Serbia, the events of the turn of the millennium, being mentioned so often now?
The methods of the forces seeking to overthrow the Serbian president are eerily similar to the pattern and appearance of what happened on Oct. 5, 2000, when the Otpor student movement led to the resignation of Slobodan Milosevic. The Belgrade University students organized the protests, led by Srdja Popovic. They took to the streets with their symbol, the Otpor movement, holding signs depicting a clenched black hand. This was the symbol of the movement. Now, this series of demonstrations has been started again by university students, only this time we see not black clenched hands, but red, so to speak, bloody hands. So the appearance has changed a little, but the scenario is very similar.
What are you thinking about, what script elements?
You mentioned the occupation of the bridges. This has a symbolic meaning: The Belgrade University students are standing up for the people of Novi Sad, thus showing the power of unity. By occupying the Novi Sad bridges, they recall the spring of 1999, when demonstrators marched on the Novi Sad bridges to protest against the NATO airstrikes. But they are also demonstrating that Vojvodina is an integral part of Serbia.
Brussels does not have good relations with Serbia led by President Vučic. How and why did Belgrade pull the plug on the EU?
Back in 2024, the former EU foreign and security policy representative, Josep Borrell, presented the Western Balkan countries with a choice: either the EU or Russia, thus foreseeing full alignment with Brussels’ foreign and security policy. Serbia recognized Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but did not impose sanctions against it. Therefore, the EU has not opened a single accession chapter with Serbia since 2021.
This was followed by American sanctions against Russia: The outgoing Biden administration imposed sanctions on Russia’s Gazprom in mid-January 2025. However, 56 percent of the Serbian oil company, NIS, is owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft. The Americans demanded that the Russians be completely removed from the Serbian NIS company. They were given 45 days to do this in mid-January. Serbia does not want to do this. Incidentally, the Serbian government led by Tadic and Kostunica sold NIS to the Russians in 2008. Boris Tadic, as you know, was the leader of the Democratic Party and was known for his pro-European and pro-Western policies. So this is a kind of foreign policy game: The Russians would become cold after such a move by Belgrade, and as a member of the UN Security Council, it is not certain that they would continue to support Serbia’s Kosovo policy.
Now that the Serbian Prime Minister has also resigned, does Vučic absolutely have to call elections?
He is not constitutionally forced to do so. After the Serbian National Assembly accepts Milos Vucevic’s resignation and at the same time the government’s mandate ends, the President of the Republic, i.e. Vučic, is obliged to initiate the procedure for electing a new government. It is important to note that they currently have an absolute majority in the parliament. The Serbian National Assembly has 30 days to form a new government. If this does not happen, the President of the Republic is obliged to dissolve the parliament and call new elections.
So the current situation gives Vučic some room to say: The country currently has a caretaker government, it needs to resolve domestic political problems, and now it cannot deal with sanctions policies.