The Polish economy will continue to gradually adjust to pandemic conditions and feel the impact of restrictions increasingly less, reports the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
“Exports once again helped the Polish economy – this time by cushioning the impact of the crisis caused by the pandemic. Our exporters are elastic and very quickly adjust to crises,” said Dr. Jakub Sawulski of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
Sawulski pointed out that the main strength of Poland’s export industry is how it is structured due to the fact that it is more diversified than in other European states, such as the rest of the Visegrád Four. He added that this is very visible in trade with Germany.
While the majority of the export to Germany from other Visegrád Four states are centered cars and machines, agri-food products hold a larger share of export compared to those products for Poland. The demand for agricultural goods also did not decrease with the pandemic.
Sawulski referred to the newest report prepared by PIE which notes that every fifth Polish exporter claimed that during the pandemic they were able to find new customers for their products. Moreover, every seventh exported stated that during the crisis, they were able to find new export outlets abroad. Dr. Jakub Sawulski, PIE: Polish export broke down between March and May, but very quickly rebounded after that. We reached last year’s level the quickest out of all the V4 countries. The Polish expert noted that after ten months of 2020, the sum of Polish export in PLN is on the same level it was in 2019 during the same period.
“Exports broke down between March and May, but very quickly rebounded after that. We reached last year’s level the quickest out of all the V4 countries,” he said.
Sawulski pointed out that Poland’s economy is steadily adapting to functioning in the pandemic’s conditions.
He explained that during the economic restrictions in March and April, Poland’s GDP dropped by a significant margin. While similar restrictions are present today, the GDP decrease is currently two times smaller than compared to March and April.
Sawulski believes that companies have learned how to operate in difficult conditions and that the economy will feel the impact of pandemic restrictions increasingly less.
PIE expects that in 2021, exports will remain one of the main motors of the Polish economy.
“This year, we already have a significant surplus in foreign trade – just in October it amounted to €1.7 billion. In 2021, we have a chance to maintain it,” he said.
PIE also forecasts that in 2021, GDP will be 4.2 percent higher than in 2020. The expert added that PIE predicts that GDP in the first quarter of 2021 will drop by around 2 percent and not 3 to 4 percent as predicted by the European Commission or Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
