According to the latest polls, Hungary’s ruling parties could win as many as 14 MEP seats next May (out of a total 21 for the country), and with the addition of representatives of the Hungarian minority in neighboring countries the number could be as high as 17.
Based on the current constitution of the European Parliament, 17 seats would mean Fidesz could be the third largest force within the EPP, that would undoubtedly increase the weight of the Hungarian community and that of the Carpathian basin. On its own, being the third largest force within the group may not mean much, but it is also increasingly likely that the traditional left-right grand coalition will be unable to gain a majority of the 705 mandates, meaning that Fidesz’s role in creating a new coalition could be bigger.
Fidesz was the most successful among its European peers at the last three general elections. In 2004, 2009 and 2014 they received around 50 percent of the votes at the European elections, an unequalled performance. It is also worth remembering that after the last EP elections it was a matter of a few dozen mandates that the EPP outnumbered the Socialists, preventing Martin Schulz from becoming head of the European Commission. Without Fidesz this would not have been possible.
Seen at an EU level, Fidesz and its allies could end up being among the ten strongest groups within the EP. This would not only reinforce its position within the EPP, but also increase the government’s manoeuvring room as a whole. This could both result in being the tip of the balance in key votes and gaining important positions in various EP committees, bringing clear benefits to the country.
This is also the first time when EP elections are not being dominated by the member states’ various domestic policy issues, but by the larger issue of migration, in which the majority of the European constituents does not want to see the continuation of the present pro-migration agendas.
