Let there be no doubt that Joe Biden and his team take the uncritical, senseless spread of liberal democracy and progressive politics seriously, and they certainly do not tolerate ideological differences, do not respect the specific culture of any nation, and do not favor sovereign governments. We should not expect to see only political debates on these topics, but also real attempts to divide our countries, and there will be especially serious attempts to alienate the Poles from the rest of Central Europe. There is undoubtedly a serious risk for division in Central Europe over our differing relations with Russia, the living situation of minorities living abroad and the instability of Ukrainian politics. And this is well known to the future leadership of America, as influential groups in Ukrainian politics already suspect.
Biden’s presidency can upset the stability of the Central European region and easily sweep away the successes that Viktor Orbán’s government achieved so far. We must be prepared for that. The identity of the President of the United States and the composition of his government since World War I is not just a matter of that country’s internal affairs. Who owns the political and economic power (which emanates first and foremost from the United States) has always had an outsized impact on the world. This impact is sometimes smaller, sometimes larger, and has varied in the intensity of its influence both in time and place, but it has always been true that the “competence” of leaders elected by American citizens far exceeded the living space that American citizens occupied themselves. The Visegrád Four alliance has never been as close and as strong in the last thirty years as it is today. There are not necessarily ideological reasons for this, but practical reasons dictated by common sense. The nations living in the region and their leading politicians have come to the realization that regardless of their political affiliation, they need to stick together. The further strengthening of cooperation was brought about by the peculiar functioning of the European Union and the behavior of Western European politicians. The treatment of the region in Brussels as a secondary European region where democracy is “underdeveloped” has further strengthened relations between the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, and there is a chance that others will join.
Throughout history, the great powers (and empires) have always sought to divide Central Europe, and have mostly been successful. The Trianon Treaty is a prime example , which left historical scars have not healed to this day. These historical divisions are of grave interest to the next US administration, and they know exactly what could be the key to developing schisms among Central Europe’s allies. Poland’s relationship with Russia and Ukraine is quite different from Hungary’s. This is the starting point. Among the countries on the borders of the Visegrád Four, the weakest link is Ukraine, where Democratic politicians have already shown how to destabilize a country and then pull it as far away from Russia as possible. Furthermore, let us not forget that the Biden family is familiar with the Ukrainian power structure, which includes the country’s web of business relations. The Biden administration could use the country as its second step towards its policy objectives in the region. Thus, after the breakdown of the Polish-Hungarian axis, which could occur under certain scenarios, Hungary will begin fragmented struggles with neighboring countries. Trianon provides a “good” template to foster these divisions. After Ukraine, it will be Romania, followed by Slovakia, which is subject to political blackmail, and so on. Divide and rule will be the strategy.
Title image: President-elect Joe Biden leaves after speaking at The Queen theater, Monday, Dec. 28, 2020, in Wilmington, Del. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)