A 14-country study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a Berlin-based think tank, reveals that the majority of Europeans do not believe Ukraine can win the war against Russia.
It turns out that Europeans are more likely to believe that Ukraine will not defeat Russia on the battlefield. The poll shows around a third to a half of respondents think the war will end in a negotiated settlement, while 31 percent of respondents think a Russian victory is likely.
Of the EU countries surveyed, only Estonia had a higher proportion of respondents (38 percent) who think Ukraine will win.
In contrast, the majority of Ukrainians (58 percent) remain confident that their troops can win and continue to count on the support of their international allies. Only 1 percent of Ukrainians believe that Russia will win the war, while 30 percent believe a negotiated settlement is the most likely outcome.
NATO leaders are unlikely to find “support among the populations of member states for the deployment of troops.” The percentage of those who support this idea varies between only 4 percent and 22 percent in different countries.
On defense spending, most countries are opposed to increasing contributions, except Poland (53 percent in favor), Estonia (45 percent), Sweden (41 percent) and Germany (40 percent).
Europeans polled are also divided on the benefits of Ukraine joining the EU. The countries most supportive are Portugal, Estonia, Sweden, Spain and Poland, while the most skeptical are Germany, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and France. However, the survey did not cover all countries.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians are clearly for joining the EU, with nearly two-thirds (64 percent) saying they believe that EU membership is as important for their country’s future as NATO membership.
