In a new analysis on the Onet website, cited by Do Rzezcy, Law and Justice (PiS) has seen the largest voter outflow since 2023, with the majority (4.6 percent) going to Grzegorz Braun’s party, Confederation of the Polish Crown. Another 4 percent chose Confederation.

“According to our analysis, the current electorate structure of the ‘Crown’ party has almost three times as many former PiS voters as former Confederation voters. This is mainly due to the fact that support for Grzegorz Braun’s party is systematically growing and is now almost identical to that achieved by Confederation in the 2023 elections,” Onet wrote.

The right-wing Confederation has a much more diverse electorate – one-third of its voters are “regular” supporters who already supported it in 2023, another 30 percent are former PiS voters, and another 20 percent are former Third Way supporters. In addition, about 10 percent are people who did not vote in the previous elections.

In the latest OGB poll, Grzegorz Braun’s party surpassed Confederation with 11 percent and took third place. This result is a shock for many political observers. Left-wing and liberal commentators have expressed outrage at such high support for the ultra-right Catholic, nationalist party.

Łukasz Pawłowski, president of the OGB, believes that it should rather be called a draw than a “fight” between the two Confederations.

“1. Braun’s party is catching up with Confederation among the 18-39 group (Braun received the highest support among all age groups in the 30-39 group in the presidential elections – 10 percent). 2. Braun’s party has equaled Confederation’s support among men (!!!). 3. Braun’s party has overtaken Confederation in the countryside. 4. Braun’s party is now the number 2 party among voters declaring right-wing views,” he told the paper.