Spain’s planned mass regularization of illegal migrants could grant legal status to more than 1.35 million people, potentially nearly three times the government’s publicly cited estimate of 500,000, according to an internal analysis prepared by the National Police.
The report, produced by the National Immigration and Borders Center (CNIF), cited by El Confidencial, estimates that between 750,000 and 1 million illegal migrants already living in Spain will likely apply for legal status, with most expected to qualify under the program’s relatively broad requirements. In addition, between 250,000 and 350,000 asylum seekers could also seek to benefit, bringing the total number potentially regularized to between 1 million and 1.35 million people.
The figures significantly exceed the 500,000 beneficiaries cited by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and by far-left Podemos political secretary Irene Montero when announcing the measure last month.
The mass amnesty was authorized by the Council of Ministers at the end of January through a royal decree mechanism, allowing the government to implement the policy without a full parliamentary vote after previous proposals stalled in Congress. The highly controversial measure was heavily criticized by social conservatives, both in Spain and across the West.
Under the scheme, non-EU nationals who can prove they were present in Spain before Dec. 31, 2025, and who have lived in the country for at least five months are eligible for provisional residence and work permits, provided they have no serious criminal record. Deportation proceedings are suspended as soon as an application is submitted, and successful applicants receive a one-year residence permit eligible for renewal.
CNIF analysts warned that the effects of the policy could extend beyond those already present in Spain. The report says the announcement has created “an international perception of Spain as a country more permissive with irregular immigration,” especially across Latin America, and risks creating a further pull factor.
That pull factor has already been experienced in the Spanish enclaves of Melilla and Ceuta, as well as on the Canary Islands where arrivals have soared, as reported by Spanish migration expert Rubén Pulido.
🔴 #ÚLTIMAHORA || Decenas de inmigrantes han ocasionado daños en las vallas fronterizas de #Ceuta. Se prevé un asalto masivo en las próximas 48-72 horas. En estos momentos la situación en nuestras fronteras es de máxima tensión. Los agentes están sin medios y se teme lo peor en… pic.twitter.com/CvLcy2qZIp
— Rubén Pulido (@rubnpulido) February 3, 2026Vox party leader Santiago Abascal sharply criticized the policy, saying, “The tyrant Sánchez hates the Spanish people. He wants to replace them. That’s why he intends to create a pull factor by decree, to accelerate the invasion. It must be stopped. Repatriations, deportations, and immigration.”
Police analysts note the measure has had “very intense media impact” in countries of origin, with online forums and social media now widely circulating information about how to obtain legal status in Spain.
The report also predicts secondary migration movements from elsewhere in the Schengen Area, estimating that between 200,000 and 250,000 migrants per year could relocate to Spain in the medium term.
Spain’s Ministry of Inclusion disputes these predictions, arguing that fixed deadlines and closed application periods mean there is no pull factor, but police unions have echoed CNIF concerns, warning the program risks overwhelming immigration units already under strain and could provide opportunities for criminal networks involved in human trafficking.
Other institutions also suggest the government’s figure may be understated, according to El Confidencial. Spain’s Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) estimated there could already be about 840,000 undocumented migrants in the country by the end of 2025.
On the ground, demand for paperwork needed for applications appears to be rising. Long queues have been reported outside several foreign consulates in Spain as migrants seek criminal record certificates and other documentation. Police have also recorded a 60 percent increase in reports of lost passports, which investigators say can sometimes be used to obscure arrival dates or prior identities.
🇪🇸🇮🇳 Hundreds of illegal immigrants line up to be regularized at the Indian Consulate in Barcelona.
The line goes right around the block. pic.twitter.com/hD1UCqs51c
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 13, 2026Additional controversy has also surrounded comments made by Podemos figure Irene Montero, who argued after the amnesty announcement that newly regularized migrants should ultimately receive Spanish citizenship and voting rights, stating at a rally that she hoped to “replace fascists and racists with immigrants.” The remarks drew sharp criticism from political opponents and international commentators, including business figure Elon Musk, who accused the far-left politician of “advocating genocide.”
Meanwhile, migration pressures continue at Spain’s external borders. Officers’ associations have warned that storm damage and structural deterioration have left sections of the border fence around the North African enclave of Ceuta vulnerable, allowing crossings to occur in seconds in some cases. Security forces have called for a comprehensive overhaul of the barrier, arguing that temporary repairs have weakened detection systems.
At the same time, Madrid has asked the European Commission to help redistribute migrants arriving in the Canary Islands across other EU member states, arguing that outermost regions face disproportionate pressure. Critics note the request comes shortly after the government launched its large-scale regularization, while supporters say the move is necessary to ease local strains.
