A fresh Insa survey reveals that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made significant gains in voter support as Germany braces for a snap federal election in February. Collected in the first days of the new year, the poll suggests the AfD would capture 21.5 percent if the vote were held next Sunday — the party’s highest polling figure in a year.
The conservative Union bloc (CDU/CSU), led by Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, maintains its December share at 31 percent, while the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) experiences a mild setback, falling by one percentage point to 15.5 percent.
The Greens, under Robert Habeck, climbed by 1.5 points to 13.5 percent, while the BSW party slipped by one percentage point to 6.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) which was co-governing until recently, currently falls below the initial five-percent threshold required for Bundestag representation at 4 percent, as does the Left Party on 3 percent.
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 31%
AfD-ESN: 21.5% (+1.5)
SPD-S&D: 15.5% (-0.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 13.5% (+0.5)
BSW-NI: 6.5% (-0.5)
FDP-RE: 4%
LINKE-LEFT: 3%
+/- vs. 30 December 2024-3 January 2025
Fieldwork: 3-6 January 2025
Sample size: 2,001
➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF#btw25… pic.twitter.com/20dkxolFQe
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) January 6, 2025The survey also examined how voter intentions evolved over the holiday period. One in two respondents said they discussed politics with relatives and friends, and one in ten reported changing their voting preference afterward — a potentially decisive factor shaping the hotly-contested ballot next month.
Speaking to Bild, Insa chief Hermann Binkert noted that the Union could “choose between three parties” to form a governing majority — the SPD, Greens, and the AfD — though Merz has repeatedly dismissed any prospect of collaborating with the right-wing party. Despite this stance, AfD co-chair Alice Weidel on Monday urged Merz to abandon the so-called cordon sanitaire against her party, invoking the Austrian example where right-wing FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl is now on track to become chancellor.
“The firewall against the AfD will not last,” Weidel insisted.
The poll results come shortly after the Magdeburg Christmas market terror attack, in which a Saudi national drove his vehicle into a festive crowd in late December. Six people were killed and nearly 300 injured in the attack, which has spurred renewed debate over national security and immigration policy. Calls for tighter border controls and stronger vetting processes have become a central theme in the campaign discourse of both right-leaning and mainstream parties.
BREAKING: 🇩🇪The death toll in the German Christmas market attack rises to 5, including a 9-year-old boy.
200 are injured.
The attacker is an anti-German who is on record threatening to "slaughter" Germans.
"I will make the German nation pay the price of the crimes committed… pic.twitter.com/QSfyYvKDyi
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) December 21, 2024Tech billionaire Elon Musk recently stirred further controversy by endorsing the AfD. In a post on social media platform X, Musk stated, “Only the AfD can save Germany” and has announced an interview featuring Weidel is set for release on Jan. 9, potentially amplifying the AfD’s media coverage at a critical time.
Germany’s legacy parties have shifted noticeably rightward on immigration, a trend accelerated by the terrorist attack in Magdeburg. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser announced on Sunday that the government might revoke protection status for certain Syrian refugees who have failed to integrate into Western society. This comes a month after the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad, which prompted a temporary pause in processing new Syrian asylum claims.
Just weeks before a hotly contested German election, the governing SPD has toughened its immigration stance by proposing the revocation of protection for some Syrian refugees, aligning more closely with conservative positions. https://t.co/RiI1h0XGJR
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 6, 2025“As our law stipulates, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees will review and revoke protection grants if people no longer need this protection in Germany because the situation in Syria has stabilized,” Faeser told the Funke Media Group on Sunday. Individuals not enrolled in work or training may be required to return to Syria. CDU candidate Merz has warned that Germany “cannot accept more Syrians” from the war-torn country and that those who are not integrated should return.
Meanwhile, senior CDU members are backing a proposal to deport asylum seekers after two criminal convictions, a policy the AfD has dismissed as insufficient. Critics argue this measure does little to stem rising crime. AfD officials suggest even tighter restrictions on foreigners convicted of crimes, reemphasizing a core election theme that has propelled the party in recent polls.
