The total number of cases of the coronavirus in Poland might peak at about 9,000 cases, which will take place on or before April 20, according to the prognostics model created for the Polish Press Agency by ExMetrix company,
The company’s main analyst, Ryszard Łukoś, believes that 48 days will pass from the first noted case to the maximum number, whereas in China this was 40 days. The highest increase in infections might amount to 400 per day, which will happen between March 28 and April 8.
After April 8, the number of infections will grow more slowly and a clear slowdown will appear on April 15.
This forecast model for the epidemic in Poland was built based on an analysis of countries in which COVID-19 already developed, namely Japan, China, South Korea, and some European states.
The epidemic forecast was also based on meteorological influences, health care conditions, the demographics of Poland, and the health condition of society including factors such as oncological and cardiological diseases, diabetes and obesity.
Other important factors were the severity of restrictions put in place by authorities and adherence to them by citizens.
Łukoś pointed out that the forecast model was created by using artificial intelligence.
“We presumed that the statistics in states affected by Covid-19 were not manipulated or modified,” he said.
The analyst emphasized that the model will be developed to match ongoing developments and new data coming from countries in which the epidemic started earlier than in Poland.
The number of cases of coronavirus in Poland reached 766 on Tuesday morning, with eight deaths recorded so far.
Title image: Ambulance crews disinfect their ambulances at the contagious diseases hospital in Woloska street that treats coronavirus patients, in Warsaw, Poland, Friday, March 20, 2020, AP.