Trump would beat Biden in 2024 by strong margin, according to new poll

By John Cody
11 Min Read

Former President Donald Trump would beat incumbent Joe Biden in a landslide, according to a new poll from McLaughlin & Associates polling company and conducted in collaboration with Hungary’s Századvég Foundation.

The poll, which is from February and focused on battleground states, revealed that a large majority — 66% — of Americans in these key states believe the country is on the wrong track under Biden. Furthermore, some 41 percent stated they are very dissatisfied, far more than those who are only somewhat dissatisfied (26 percent).

Just 34 percent were optimistic, with only 9 percent claiming strongly that the U.S. is going in the right direction. Meanwhile, 24 percent stated that things were going only “somewhat” well, according to Hungarian news outlet Mandiner, which reported on the poll.

Republican-leaning respondents, of course, produced an even more damning assessment, with 87 percent of them saying that the U.S. is on the wrong track. Sixty-five percent say it is “strongly” on the wrong track, and 22 percent said this is somewhat the case. Only 13 percent of Republicans said the U.S. is on the right track (4 percent said “very good,” and 10 said somewhat good).

The poll interviewed 1,600 citizens in the so-called battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and others, with all respondents identified as “likely voters.” These battleground states are seen as especially important due to the U.S. electoral voting system.

According to the new poll, 56 percent of voters in battleground states disapprove of Biden, with a majority of those strongly disapproving (42 percent). The data also showed that 42 percent of the respondents hold a favorable image of Biden, but the majority were not very enthusiastic. For 25 percent, Biden had only a “somewhat” favorable image, while a mere 17 percent said they hold a very favorable image of the president. Another 2 percent declined to answer.

The disapproval rating was sky-high among Republicans, with a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 89-10, also with 2 percent not responding. The poll shows that if Trump is said to be “divisive,” Biden is in the same position.

As for Trump, his disapproval rating among all respondents is 57 percent, and 41 percent associate him with a positive image. Among Republicans, 70 percent have a favorable image of the former president, as opposed to 29 percent who view him unfavorably.

Despite Trump having a 1-point higher unfavorably rating, when it comes to a direct matchup between Biden and Trump, voters appear to favor Trump for the 2024 election. The poll showed that 48 percent would vote for Donald Trump in 2024, while only 43 percent would vote for Joe Biden. Another 9 percent were undecided.

The poll also showed that Trump supporters are slightly more determined to vote for their candidate, with 33 percent reporting to be determined, as opposed to 31 percent among Democrat voters.

This same preference was seen in a generic ballot for Congress, with 48 percent of voters saying they would vote for a Republican ticket and 43 percent saying they would vote for Democrats.

In addition, the Republican Party appears to have more voters who say they will “definitely” vote Republican compared to Democrats (31 percent compared to 27 percent). The percentage of undecided voters was 10 percent.

There does, however, appear to be some divide among Republicans about who should run on the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, 51 percent say they would vote for Trump in a primary run, while DeSantis secured 41 percent of the vote. Another 7 percent are undecided. Other polls have shown Trump with a more commanding lead in a Republican primary fight, but the poll from McLaughlin & Associates and Századvég Foundation only included the two candidates and left other potential contenders, such as Nikki Haley, out of a potential primary battle.

DeSantis has a largely positive image among Republicans, with 70 percent saying they view the Florida governor favorably. Another 14 percent said they do not approve of DeSantis, but 10 percent of voters said they had no opinion of him and 6 percent said they do not even know who he is.

Voters also appear to believe Trump is better suited to take on Biden. When pollsters asked who is capable of defeating Joe Biden in 2024, 57 percent said Trump, while 42 percent said “someone else.”

Deep discontent in the United States

The poll also went deeper into the weeds to determine the mindset of the American public, asking: “Since Biden got elected President, are you better or worse off?”

The results showed that 48 percent of all respondents felt they were worse off, while 32 percent said they felt no change and 20 percent felt that they were better off than before.

The results were worse for Republicans, with 79 percent saying they were worse off, 15 percent saying they were the same, and just under 6 percent saying they were better off.

The next question was: “Since 2020 has the US been moving forwards or backwards?”

The results here were even more negative, with 65 percent saying the U.S. is going backwards, not forwards, while only 35 percent think it is going forwards. The Republican result is stark, with 90 percent saying backwards and just 11 percent saying forwards.

The data also shows many Americans are not in the best place mentally: 42 percent of people feel anger, frustration and despair; 39 percent feel fear and worry; and only 19 percent feel pride and patriotism.

Republican voters are unhappier than Democrats, with 53 percent saying they are angry, frustrated and desperate; 38 percent are anxious; and only 9 percent feel pride and patriotism.

Inflation remains the number one issue for voters, with 22 percent of Republicans naming this as their top issue, while 19 percent of independent voters listed it as their top issue.

Americans were less concerned about social issues, although migration, for instance, was the third-biggest concern listed by Americans at 6 percent. Eleven percent of Republicans put it as their second most important issue. Race and discrimination were listed as the top issue by just 4 percent of Americans, and abortion was listed by only 1 percent.

The poll also found that 20 percent of all Americans listed China as the country’s number one threat, making it the top threat facing the country, according to respondents. However, Joe Biden was listed as the second-worst enemy of the U.S., with 7 percent listing him, along with 14 percent of Republicans.

Biden performs poorly on specific issues

When Biden’s performance is assessed by issue, he performs abysmally in all categories, including on topics like government spending, curbing illegal migration, fighting China, fighting corruption, and lowering inflation. Approval in these categories ranged between 24 percent to 32 percent, while the dissatisfaction rate was between 68 percent and 76 percent.

The poll shows that for every voter who was satisfied or “rather” satisfied with Biden on these issues, there were two or three dissatisfied voters. The result for Republicans was truly dismal, with 90-92 percent saying they were dissatisfied, compared to 8-10 percent satisfied.

One in five respondents mentioned Biden’s advanced age (20 percent) as a weakness, while 15 percent listed Biden’s health and mental fitness as his biggest weakness.

It also stands out that 26 percent of voters say the president has no accomplishments, while 44 percent of Republicans say the same.

Biden’s camp may also be concerned with one specific data point in particular: 53 percent of all respondents said Biden is corrupt, a figure that jumps to 82 percent for Republicans.

As for the main issues, 90 percent of respondents agreed that “America should belong to the American people, not to the bureaucrats in Washington”; 87 percent said they want major change, but they also expect a budget ceiling and a purge of “Chinese communist influence”; and 78 percent would end war spending. Three-quarters of respondents said, “America belongs to the American people, not the illegal immigrants,” and 69 percent said, “It’s time to sweep the radical left out of Washington.”

Another 68 percent said “It is enough. We can’t afford Joe Biden’s inflation ever again.”

The war in Ukraine

Regarding the war in Ukraine, 57 percent of voters say Trump would bring the desired peace, and the majority of Americans, 77 percent, say that the U.S. should promote peace, while 23 percent say the conflict should continue until Putin is defeated.

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