March proved to be the worst month for Ukraine of the entire war in terms of equipment losses, according to American analyst and military observer Dmitry Alperovitch, writes Do Rzeczy.
Alperovitch based his analysis on data from the Oryx OSINT monitoring project for March 2025, showing Ukrainian losses slightly exceed Russian losses, 1.1 to 1 in Russia’s favor.
The analyst’s graph was shared on social media by Czech OSINT analyst Jakub Janovsky, one of Oryx’s top volunteers, and Ukrainian military analyst Tatarigami, founder of one of Ukraine’s most famous analytical groups, Frontelligence Insight. Both refused to deny Alperovitch’s findings.
Alperovitch’s chart does not provide precise data on how many units of equipment each side lost in March, or what type of equipment was lost. Overall, it appears that each side lost in the region of 400 units, with Ukraine losing slightly more.
The analyst noted that the indicator would be slightly better for Ukraine if only heavy weapons were taken into account. But even in this case, March will be the second-worst month of the entire war for Ukraine.
He also suggested that the Russian offensive at Kursk and the forced retreat of Ukrainian troops played a role.
Alperovitch says the Russian army is increasingly switching to the use of civilian equipment during assault operations. As a result, losses in manpower are increasing, while the statistics of losses in armored vehicles are decreasing.
“Still, given the lack of heavy weapons in Ukraine and the uncertain future regarding the scale of future foreign military aid, this is not a very good situation,” Alperovitch concluded.
