SW Research asked survey participants the following question: “Do you think that the ruling coalition, following recent events (including the late-night meeting between Szymon Hołownia and Jarosław Kaczyński), will last until the end of its term, i.e., until 2027?” 

The responses, reported on by the Do Rzeczy news portal, indicate that 33.6 percent of respondents believe the coalition will not survive the next two years. Another 32.6 percent of respondents disagree, while 33.8 percent were unable to answer this question.

Some 38 percent of men and 27.9 percent of women believe the coalition will survive. Among those under 24, 50.7 percent of respondents believe the current government will serve a full term. 

A similar opinion was expressed by 32.6 percent of those aged 25 to 34. Among those aged 35-49, 32.7 percent of respondents expressed optimism about the coalition’s future. 

Among those over 50, only 28.9 percent believe the coalition will serve a full term.

The study was conducted on July 8-9, 2025, by the SW RESEARCH agency using online interviews (CAWI—Computer-Assisted Web Interview) on the SW Panel website. The study involved 816 respondents with a nationwide sample of adults. Quota sampling was used, ensuring the sample was representative in terms of the overall distribution of gender, age, and town-size class.

Concerns about the stability of the ruling coalition have grown significantly following the disclosure of a July 3 meeting between Jarosław Kaczyński and Poland 2050 leader Szymon Hołownia in the private apartment of MEP Adam Bielan in Warsaw. 

Speaker of the Sejm Szymon Hołownia noted on social media: “The excitement related to my meeting yesterday is neither justified nor advisable,” since he regularly meets with representatives of both conflicting political camps.