In the second round of the local government elections Law and Justice (PiS) did not expect to win in major cities such as Gdańsk or Kraków, but they will be concerned they did not win in smaller cities.
No Republican in the US has won the presidency without taking Ohio. Its seen as an electoral weather belt state. In Poland it’s the smaller cities which are the crucial battleground. And there, in cities such as Radom, Tarnów and Ostrołęka, PiS is systematically losing ground.
Losing ground in its own Ohio does not bode well for PiS prospects next year. Especially the European elections which come just before the Polish Parliamentary elections could be a problem
After the second round PiS are second best not only in large cities but also in medium sized cities. These are places where social transfers the ruling party has concentrated on should have proved more effective.
But the liberal opposition cannot feel satisfied. PiS is stronger in the 16 provinces and over 300 counties. It has gained new means of exercising power at local government level.
However, losing ground in its own Ohio does not bode well for PiS prospects next year. Especially the European elections which come just before the Polish Parliamentary elections could be a problem, if they are perceived to be some sort of referendum on Poland’s presence in the EU.
