The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has been under sustained pressure from the media and government in recent months, but it appears to have hardly dented its polling numbers. In fact, its position in Saxony appears to be as strong as ever, with the prominent Insa polling firm reporting the party is in first place with 34 percent of the vote.
Perhaps even more consequential for the party is that the traffic-light government, which consists of the Greens, the Social Democrats (SPD), and the Free Democrats (FDP), would be nearly entirely removed from power if the vote in Saxony were held today. The Greens are scoring just at 5 percent, SPD has 6, and the FDP would be completely removed with just 2 percent.
Notably, Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party, BSW, would earn 11 percent. It was previously theorized that BSW would steal votes from the AfD, but current polling numbers have so far mostly refuted these claims. For instance, the last time Insa polled in Saxony in September, which was before the BSW existed, the AfD scored 35 percent. Wagenknecht is known for her anti-war stance and support of an anti-woke form of leftism.
According to another Insa poll released yesterday, the AfD is also scoring extremely well in the eastern German state of Thuringia, with 31 percent of the vote, which is the same exact score it received since the last poll was taken in January 2024.
Again, the poll numbers are horrendous for the Greens, SPD, and FDP, as the poll below shows.
It should also be noted that the AfD is classified as “definitely right-wing extremist” in both the states of Saxony and Thuringia by the powerful domestic spy agency, the Office of the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). Despite this designation, it appears to have done little to harm the party’s standing with the electorate and may have actually served to help it due to the extreme dissatisfaction with and distrust of the government among many easterners.
Insa has also released another national poll showing the AfD at 19.5 percent after the party dipped to 18.5 percent in the previous poll.
It appears the AfD is rebounding from a massive and coordinated media and government onslaught, which saw a number of nationwide demonstrations organized against the party. The left-liberal government and mainstream outlets claimed the AfD was promoting a secret deportation plan at a meeting near Potsdam; however, the party has rejected these claims and is even suing the NGO Correctiv over the allegations made in its report. Correctiv has already backtracked on some of the claims made in its piece.
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State elections in the east, which are set to be held in the autumn of 2024, are fast approaching. Due to the AfD’s resilience, rival parties may accelerate calls for a ban on the AfD before the party can be voted into office. These rival parties claim the AfD must be banned to “protect democracy.”
