Community space and café “Scruton,” named after Sir Roger Scruton, organized a public debate titled “On the threshold of a new world order?” on Tuesday evening.
At the event, host Máté Gerhardt spoke with Sámuel Ágoston Mráz, head of Budapest’s Nézőpont Institute, and lawyer András Schiffer, former Politics Can Be Different (LMP) parliamentary group leader, about what the European Union could gain and lose from the seismic changes taking place in world politics, reports Mandiner.
Mráz predicted that Friedrich Merz would be the German chancellor, while the AfD could reach 25 percent in the election. Although still hypothetical, a grand coalition is expected, he said, as well as a U-turn on migration, but in his opinion, the AfD will not get close to government in 2025. Instead, the system parties will enter into coalitions with each other sooner.
“The question is about what kind of power formations will be created after the election, and whether the external support of the AfD is acceptable to them,” he said.
“The campaign is also about who wants to tighten up on migration and how,” Mráz explained, adding that Germans will nevertheless not admit that Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was right on this issue.
🇩🇪🇭🇺"Germany has woken up."
PM Viktor Orbán said due to crime, terrorism, and social chaos, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is finally racing to implement border checks.
The EU still wants to hit Hungary with a €200 million fine for protecting its own borders. pic.twitter.com/p6kQVdVuUJ
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 16, 2024Mráz also mentioned that a new impetus is expected in German economic policy, including tax cuts for large companies, while the country will finally see growth off of a negative base, which will also have a positive impact on households.
At the same time, from a Hungarian perspective, the expected scenario in Germany is mixed, he said, as Merz is pro-war and wants to support Ukraine with weapons that have never been seen before, including Taurus missiles.
According to András Schiffer, times are not good for Germany. “The prospects are the worst since 1949. (…) The German system is such that even when Chancellor Helmut Kohl achieved the best results, he was forced into a coalition,” he said.
“A coalition is needed in Germany (…) while the most important thing for Europe is for the Greens to get out of government,” Schiffer added.
On the topic of Musk’s recent vocal support for AfD, Schiffer said that “it is not a normal state of politics when the wealthy few intervene in the internal affairs of foreign countries without any authorization.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz singles out Elon Musk and then says Europe's "freedom of speech" is not for "extreme right positions."
The question is who defines what are "extreme right positions." pic.twitter.com/6jidtqy4N8
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 21, 2025Schiffer commented that Europe’s willpower has now disappeared, and in many Western European countries, the man in the street cannot name the leading politicians.
For his part, Mráz said that everyone expects Donald Trump to come and restore order, that is, “the brave Europeans are waiting for America again.”
The solution will probably include construction investments going to Ukraine, as well as American weapons, but it is also a question of whether the peacekeeping soldiers will include Americans in addition to Germans, French and Balkans, he said.
“The Trumps are not joking,” Mráz continued. “The Americans will say that Europe should pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine, the president will look at American interests.”
“Europe has not woken up yet, they are not thinking about what the right reaction is to the American steps,” he said, adding that talking about Ukraine’s NATO and EU membership is also “pointless.”
Regarding the new U.S. administration, Mráz said Hungary should emphasize topics in which they have a common interest, such as ending the war or gender ideology.
Mráz noted that although progressives have tried to push Hungary out of the EU in recent years, essentially trying to force him to leave, PM Orbán “has always emphasized that he wants to change Europe,” with the Patriots for Europe grouping all about “building a new European elite that will be able to take over governance in 2029.”
As to Péter Magyar, head of the opposition Tisza party, the head of the Nézőpont Institute said that Magyar is promising Orbán-critics that he will defeat the prime minister, something he reminded, Gyurcsány also promised but failed to deliver.
“This is how they feed hope,” he said.
According to Mráz, the middle class has turned against Fidesz due to planned developments being interrupted by Covid and the war. This is why Orbán is now so focused on strengthening Hungary’s middle class.
Schiffer stated that he would like nothing less than for the former head of the Student Loans Center to become the prime minister in Hungary.
He noted that “it is quite serious evidence for the NER’s 14 years that someone came from obscurity more than a year ago, and a bloc has formed here that has no will or thought beyond keeping the current prime minister and his cronies out of the picture. They don’t care what the consequences of their votes are. This is also true for the supporters of the Tisza formation. And this is a disaster.”
“If there is no opposition capable of governing, then sooner or later the whole country will suffer the consequences,” Schiffer said, also noting Péter Magyar’s potential for violence. He said that is “downright terrifying” that voters may be OK with this and follow the “Polish model,” i.e., dismantling the rule of law in a way “reminiscent of the dark times before the regime change.”
