Although the majority of illegal weapons are still located in Ukraine, weapons of Ukrainian origin have been identified in several European countries, Gabor Nagy says in a piece for Mandiner.
It is not an unwarranted fear or some side story on the part of the current government to claim that what is happening in Ukraine now poses security risks to neighboring countries, including Hungary.
Illegal arms trade and smuggling, on the other hand, are a source of danger that may persist even after the conflict is over, and may even continue in greater volume, with the justification that Ukraine no longer needs the equipment that was delivered there.
An extremely large amount of modern weapons have fallen into civilian hands and then into the black market (i.e., into uncontrolled circulation) both inside Ukraine, as well as on routes headed for Europe and the Americas.
According to the 2023-2024 report of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), although the majority of illegal weapons are still located in Ukraine, weapons of Ukrainian origin have been identified in several European countries (such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden).
In addition, investigations are also underway in the Balkans, Italy, Germany, Spain, Austria, and Croatia.
Although there is no evidence of widespread, illegally organized arms exports to Europe, the situation could pose a serious security risk to the entire continent, including Hungary, in the long term, which, due to its geographical location, serves as a transit route for smuggling towards Western markets.
At the dawn of the regime change, firearms and ammunition from the former Soviet federal republics, and from the outbreak of the Yugoslav wars, from the former Yugoslav member states, often reached Hungary, and from there on to Western Europe.
Several studies have drawn attention to the fact that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the instability in the Balkans created a favorable environment for organized crime, including arms smuggling, corruption, and money laundering.
