Ukrainian experts are now openly acknowledging the deliberate nature of the attacks on the Friendship oil pipeline, which supplies Hungary with oil, and are saying that Hungary cannot cause serious damage to Ukraine’s energy market. Yet, a single decision in Budapest could put Kyiv in serious difficulties this winter.

Regarding the attacks on the Friendship oil pipeline, the Ukrainian side has already openly admitted that they were deliberately carried out against Hungary and Slovakia, and they are urging Ukrainians not to worry because the Hungarians cannot interfere. Even if Hungary wanted to cut electricity exports to Ukraine, the Ukrainian side said EU mechanisms would prevent this, which is what energy expert Olena Lapenko wrote on the Yevropeyska Pravda news portal.

Ukrainian attacks on the Hungarian energy system

In recent years, the oil pipeline supplying Hungary has been attacked several times, mostly by Ukraine. Géza Sebestyén also wrote that Hungary has few options to hinder electricity transfer to Ukraine.

“If Budapest actually carries out its threats, it will be a serious challenge, but not a catastrophe. Thus, the ‘Druzhba’ case proves once again that excessive energy dependence is becoming a factor. Ukraine has long understood this, as have most EU member states. However, the shutdown of Russian oil pipelines offers Brussels an opportunity to put more pressure on Budapest and Bratislava to accelerate diversification and permanently abandon Russian resources.”

On the other hand, a recent study suggests that even a single Hungarian decision would indeed cause serious difficulties for Ukraine. The shutdown of Hungarian electricity supplies would be a problem, especially in winter, although Ukrainian experts say there is no chance of a complete collapse.

In the case of oil, the loss of supplies via the Friendship oil pipeline could also be compensated, but this would lead to higher fuel prices. 

In connection with the Ukrainian threats, it is also worth mentioning that Slovnaft is the contracted partner for the transport of diesel oil to Ukraine. The diesel oil comes to Hungary from Bratislava and goes to Ukraine via a product pipeline from the Tisza Refinery. 

In terms of electricity exported to Ukraine, it is carried out through four pipelines in an amount of approximately 680 megawatts, which represents approximately 40 percent of Ukraine’s electricity imports. The weight of this becomes increasingly significant in the winter period. 

Hungary may decide to limit daily exports, but as an option, a coordinated separation could also be implemented. 

Ukraine has not purchased Russian natural gas directly since November 2015, and natural gas is imported to the Ukrainian market from Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. Over the past three years, the amount of natural gas transported from Hungary to Ukraine has increased several times. 

If Hungary were to close the taps, Ukraine would be forced to buy the missing volume from other suppliers at a higher price, which would be another nail in the coffin of the Ukrainian economy.

However, Ukrainians appear confident that they can weather such a crisis.

Lopenko also said that the fact that cross-border capacities have been built in the field of electricity trade also provides some protection for Ukraine, pointing to capacities built in Slovakia, Poland, and even Romania.

She says the missing Hungarian deliveries can also be replaced, at least on paper.