At today’s cabinet meeting, the draft budget for 2026 will be discussed, and tense exchanges are expected between Prime Minister Tusk and President Nawrocki.
“It will certainly be a difficult budget,” says Karol Pogorzelski, economist at Bank Pekao. “Please remember that we are starting from a high deficit level this year. It’s unlikely to be lower next year. And in my opinion, it will clearly exceed PLN 300 billion (€70 billion),” he adds, according to Do Rzeczy.
Adam Antoniak, economist at ING Bank Śląski, concurs. “The situation is tense, the state budget will be difficult to manage, and I would be surprised if the deficit didn’t exceed PLN 300 billion next year, estimates,” he says.
This would be the largest deficit ever. Estimates call for a 2025 deficit of PLN 289 billion, compared to PLN 211 billion in 2024 and PLN 85 billion in 2023.
The government has thus announced higher taxes for 2026, including higher excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco products and a higher “sugar tax.”
Banks are being targeted, too, and will face a higher corporate income tax.
A couple of days ago, Poland Daily 24 wrote that the Tusk government plans to first up the tax on alcohol, but sources say President Nawrocki will veto any higher excise duty.
