Representatives of the United States and Russia are holding talks in Saudi Arabia to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine, but much uncertainty remains about whether Russian and Ukrainian demands will come much closer together.
On Sunday, the American delegation met with the Ukrainians, and today it is the turn of the Russian side. According to Portfolio, a key issue is the 30-day suspension of attacks on energy facilities, which the parties theoretically agreed on last week, but both Kyiv and Moscow accuse each other of violating the moratorium.
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that they would identify those facilities that could not be attacked under the agreement, including not only energy infrastructure but also the railway network and ports.
The issue of nuclear power plants is also receiving special attention. Trump has suggested that the U.S. could help operate Ukrainian nuclear facilities, and Zelensky has been open to American involvement. Kyiv would like to see the Zaporizhia plant returned to Ukrainian control, but Moscow is likely to reject this option.
The safety of Black Sea shipping is another concern. Although Russia withdrew from the agreement regulating grain exports last year, the World Bank reports that the parties are still able to ship grain to global markets. On this front, both Kyiv and Moscow appear willing to compromise.
The issue of prisoner exchanges is also moving in the right direction: Ukraine and Russia have mutually transferred 175 prisoners of war, and Moscow has even returned 22 seriously wounded soldiers as a “sign of goodwill.”
Ukraine’s NATO membership remains a contentious issue. While Ukraine sees membership as a constitutional goal, Putin is strongly opposed to it, with Trump saying Russia will not “allow” Ukraine to join.
While it seems unlikely that Kyiv will become a member of the Western military alliance in the foreseeable future, the situation is further worsened by contradictory statements within the U.S. government: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said, “This will not be the solution to the conflict,” while his deputy, John Coale, said a day later that NATO accession had not been ruled out.
With NATO membership moving further away, Kyiv wants other security guarantees. Washington has previously ruled out the possibility of sending peacekeepers to the country, but several European countries, led by France and the United Kingdom, are considering this option. Moscow, however, categorically rejects this route, viewing NATO troops as a security threat.
Moscow has also long said it does not consider Zelensky to be a legitimate president, as his term expired last year. However, Ukrainians have stressed that they will definitely not hold elections in a war situation. According to Ukrainian statements, there would be a realistic chance of holding new elections after a peace agreement, and Moscow, regardless of strong statements, has shown itself willing to continue peace talks with Zelensky.
On the issue of sanctions, Washington is also making conflicting statements: Moscow naturally wants sanctions to be eased, while Trump has repeatedly said that this is possible only after the peace agreement. The U.S. president has also hinted that until the peace agreement is signed, it may impose new sanctions on the Russian banking sector and impose punitive tariffs on Moscow.
Logically, there is also not much agreement between the parties on the issue of occupied Ukrainian territories. Moscow wants both Ukraine and the United States to recognize the five occupied Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the Crimean peninsula, as Russian territory. The biggest problem with this demand is that significant areas of Zaporizhia, Kherson and Donetsk, as well as some villages in Luhansk, are not under Russian control.
Last year, Ukraine set a goal of complete liberation, but now they have admitted that they will not be able to regain all the territory by military means.
At the moment, the most likely scenario is that the ceasefire will take into account the areas currently under Russian control.
The issue of exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources also came up during the talks. An agreement is being prepared between the U.S. and Ukraine on the extraction of rare earth metals, and there is also talk of developing Ukrainian gas infrastructure, which could provide an alternative to Russian natural gas for European countries.
It is important to note, however, that a very significant percentage of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals are located in the Donbass, which is under Russian control
