Bad times are coming for China, Russia, and Germany, and the future belongs to America, Japan, Turkey, and Poland, author and political scientist George Friedman told Gazeta Prawna.
The following interview has been cut in some places for brevity.
For many readers, your (latest) book is not so much a geopolitical analysis as science fiction.
If a hundred years ago, readers picked up a history textbook written in the early 21st century, they would also have felt like they were reading a science fiction novel. If they had heard that by the end of the 20th century, nothing would remain of the imperial power of France and Great Britain, that Israel would appear on the world map, and a third-world country with 50 percent illiteracy – the United States of America – would play a dominant role, they would have felt like someone was telling them fairy tales.
What data did you rely on when writing your forecast for the 21st century?
First, the birth rate is falling, and this is happening on a global scale. For the first time in 500 years, by the end of the century, the number of people inhabiting the Earth will not increase but decrease. A significant decrease is especially true in developed countries, which means that the price of land will not increase as quickly as it has been so far. Labor costs will increase, however, and this will contribute to the search for new technical solutions. The inevitable technological development is the second important element of my forecast. Finally, the third factor is geopolitical: The USA is the world hegemon, and its position does not seem to be threatened. The 21st century will belong to America.
What speaks to the fact that a bright future awaits us?
I have the impression that few Poles realize that according to the International Monetary Fund, your economy ranks 18th in the world. What’s more, you are a country that is of key strategic importance to the United States. Let’s think about South Korea for a moment. In the 1950s, it was a nation of poor farmers, and if someone had insisted on becoming an industrial powerhouse, everyone would have thought they were a fantasist. What is behind this country’s success? American technologies, mainly military, which Korea used to boost its economy.
But we don’t see these technologies in Poland, where is the American help?
Even if the anti-missile shield is not created, Poland has Patriots and F-16s at its disposal. And it is interested in further military cooperation, unlike Germany or France, which, when they hear such proposals, run away like hell. The F-16 is a key issue. First, the strategic goal of the United States is to block Russian expansion. We have the experience of the Cold War behind us and we do not want another one. Second, America realizes that in this case, it cannot rely on Germany because its economy is too strongly linked to Russia’s. And that is why the United States needs Poland.
Did Joe Biden visit Poland (as VP) to apologize for abandoning the shield?
Biden did not fly to Warsaw to reassure the Poles, but due to opposition to Obama in the U.S. Even if Obama personally chose not to oppose the expansion of Russia’s sphere of influence (ed.: i.e., a “reset” of relations), the Democrats, fearing an election loss, forced him to take the issue seriously. Many congressmen criticized Obama’s decision to abandon the shield. (ed.: plans for a long-range missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic). Therefore, the U.S. vice president had to visit Poland to maintain the relations that bind us.
You write that Russia will lose the clash with the U.S. and that a second fall of Russia is inevitable. Why?
Russia’s population is shrinking, its economy is in decline, and its infrastructure has never been developed enough to ensure sustainable development for the entire country. As long as the Americans are busy with jihadists, Putin has more freedom of action. He is doing two things: He wants to bring Russia and Germany closer together, and he wants to convince his neighbors of his power. But today’s Russia is an even weaker player than in 1991. And that is why it is so concerned about the growing importance of Poland, which is the eighth-largest economy in Europe and is developing its military potential. It has a chance to increase its influence on Ukraine and the Baltic states. As always, it is between Germany and Russia, but this time it does not have to rely on help from France.
But it has to rely on the U.S., which is even further away than France was in 1939.
Contrary to appearances, the United States is closer to Poland today than France was on the eve of World War II. History has not been kind to Poland, which is still healing its wounds from the German and Russian occupation, perhaps even the partitions. When a Pole looks in the mirror, he sees a man who has to hide from the secret police. You still see yourselves as a victim of history.
Let’s move to the second half of the 21st century. Poland is not the only strong player, you make room on the map for two other powers that we will have to face. Why Japan and not China? Why Turkey and not Egypt?
Japan is the world’s second-largest economy and the largest military power in the whole of Northeast Asia, and all its neighbors envy its navy. China, despite having 1.3 billion inhabitants, cannot compete with Japan. Some 660 million Chinese live in households whose income is $3 per day. This is third-world level. Another 400 million households earn an income of $1,000-2,000 per month, which means that over a billion live in poverty. There are only 60 million households earning over $20,000. We are impressed by the large factories, but all their sales are exports, and people in China simply cannot afford to buy. Beijing has become a hostage of Washington, and China is a Wal-Mart republic. If Wal-Mart stops importing Chinese products, the economy will collapse.
Japan has its problems too. Demographics are not in its favor at all.
But, a decrease in population does not necessarily mean a decrease in their standard of living. Japan is a leader in robotics.
We’re back into science fiction. What about Turkey?
The 17th largest economy in the world, the largest of all Muslim countries. Its influence extends from the Balkans to the Caucasus. It has the largest and best army in Europe. I do not predict that Japan or Turkey will become the strongest players in their regions — they already are. And based on this, I predict how they will further strengthen their position. And so it is with Poland. It has not only become a power in the region but is learning how to use this position in international games.
Why do you think Europe will cease to matter? Maybe thanks to the Lisbon Treaty it will challenge America?
Europeans want to have two hearts in one – they dream of a strong multinational state, but with the freedom and sovereignty of individual countries preserved. The really key decisions in Europe are not made in Brussels. There is a visible tension between the theory of multinationalism and reality, i.e., strong nationalism. Of course, this is not about nationalism in its military form, but understood as taking care of national interests. The Treaty of Lisbon is just another document that will fail at the most needed moment. Let’s take the financial crisis. When the situation became really serious, binding decisions were made by Berlin, Paris, or Rome. The German government wants to ensure that Germany prospers above all. And that’s it.
Or maybe Germany is the player you are underestimating in your forecast?
France and Germany are countries that have been slowly declining since the 1990s. Their position is very shaky – they have a strong economy but practically zero military potential. I don’t know of any case where a country that decided on such a strategy came out unscathed. Germany is a rich old man who lives in a shady neighborhood. And Europe has always been such a dangerous neighborhood.
Surely Europe has long since passed its glory days?
Let us recall what Europe was like in the 16th century, at the time of the conquest of the New World. Isn’t the Spanish conquistador the embodiment of barbarism, which triumphs through brute force? Civilizations go through three stages. At first, they believe that everything they do is right and inevitable. In other words, that taking care of the interests of their power is in accordance with the will of God. The second stage is civilizational maturity, the moment when you begin to believe that the cause you are fighting for is right, but you accept the possibility of making a mistake. This is Europe in the second half of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th century. But this doubt paralyzes it and it is unable to fight for anything, it only ponders the possible consequences of the actions it may take.
Is this the third stage? And is this the Europe of today?
After all, Europe doesn’t even have an army. There is no issue here that could not be the subject of compromise. Europe desperately sought such a compromise in Munich, trying at all costs to live right next to Hitler. The entire 20th century was a time of searching for the golden means that would allow it to adapt to any change in the situation. And at the same time, it expressed the most bestial barbarity known to humanity. This exhaustion continues, and Europe has made it its virtue.
Is Eastern Europe also exhausted?
Western Europe spent almost half a century deprived of real sovereignty – the foreign policy of Germany, France or Great Britain was not in the hands of their governments at all, but of their growing protector – America. The only sphere of freedom in which it had influence was the creation of prosperity. So it focused on increasing wealth. The Cold War is over, and Western Europe is trying at all costs to maintain the direction it set years ago. Let’s not take too much responsibility for the world, let’s focus on what is most important, and let’s ensure a comfortable life for ourselves. If only the Americans would stop messing around, we would achieve that desired peace.
Eastern Europe has a completely different story. It smells of betrayal everywhere, because it has been given a hard time by its supposed allies.
And America?
The United States is a very young country, it only became a global power after the fall of the USSR. For the first half of the 20th century, it did not even count on the international stage. It was only World War II that brought it onto the scene. And after Hitler’s defeat, the Cold War with the USSR came, and it was not at all obvious that Washington would win against Moscow. In 1991, the U.S. became a hegemon and has no idea what to do about it. President Bill Clinton has basically adopted the European point of view. “The economy, stupid” – we all remember this slogan. Prosperity is what counts and nothing more. George W. Bush tried to find another way, and when Obama was president, he experimented. America behaves like someone who does not know what he wants. But that does not mean that it is not a superpower.
On American military
The interests of the United States today are the same as those of the British years ago: to take control of the seas. Whoever controls the seas (and airspace, and also space) has freedom of action all over the world. They must therefore prevent other countries from increasing their strength. From the British, they learned to maintain their advantage by destabilizing those players who could pose a threat to U.S. hegemony. America has thus dealt with Serbia, Iraq, Al-Qaeda. In these wars, the point is not to win (or to achieve piece), but to prevent the other side from winning. That is why, although America has lost so many wars, it is growing stronger.
On Poland
When I talk to Poles about Poland, I can’t help but feel like we are talking about two different countries. The Russians are afraid of you, the Americans respect you, and you don’t take off your victim costume, as if you were waiting for the Wehrmacht to come back.
George Friedman is the author of “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” and “The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond,“ founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
