Further development in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not just important for the Czech Republic but for the whole of Europe as well. Its breakdown could cause another armed conflict at our doorstep and also create chaos at one of the new gates for migrants fleeing to Europe through the Balkans.
BiH is a de jure federation formally governed by a Presidency of three, but de facto in the way the High Representative appointed by the international community is ruling the country. Each part of the council is aligned with a different actor – Serbians with Serbia and Russia, Croats with Croatia and Bosnians with Turkey – and the EU and the US are trying to keep an eye on it. The election winner, a Serbian nationalist Milorad Dodik, is discussing every move with Belgrade and Moscow. Now, he is going to meet the Serbian President before meeting the Presidency, in which he takes a seat alongside social democratic Croat Komsic and pro-Erdogan Bosniak Dzaferovic.
The new Presidency of BiH together makes an explosive mix, where only two options are possible. They may find a common ground and take a step toward a real federation, which is rather a unlikely scenario, or the country will be divided.
Current forced unity is unsustainable, but there is no better option. Thus, it is only logical that the US rush to support united BiH and Russia.
Another conflict would only trigger a new migration wave that Europe must tackle. Something that the EU cannot risk, as it remains unclear what is going to happen with illegal migrants at the Croatian border, while China is trying to buy its way to Europe through BiH.
