Polish political scientist Marcin Palade predicts conservative-backed Karol Nawrocki will win the second round of the presidential election by a slim margin.

The second round will take place on June 1 and see Rafał Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw and supported by PM Donald Tusk’s liberal KO, and Karol Nawrocki, an independent supported by PiS, vying for the post.

Palade says you need to take into account voters of who did not vote in the first round, but will vote in the second, according to Polsat News. In 2020, he says, this amounted to 1.2 million Poles.

“According to the declarations we have from the latest polls, about 65 percent of Sławomir Mentzen’s voters are considering voting for Karol Nawrocki, about 15 percent for Rafał Trzaskowski, he told the portal. In the case of Grzegorz Braun’s voters, 65 percent will vote for Nawrocki, and 0 percent will support Trzaskowski.

Palade further noted that these groups equal more than 21 percent of voters, giving Nawrocki at least a tie with Trzaskowski, as Nawrocki can expect no more than 15 percent from Szymon Hołownia’s base. His analysis also shows that 75 percent of supporters of the centrist party led by Hołownia, Poland 2050, will go to Trzaskowski.

For Adrian Zandberg and Magdalena Biejat, who both got under 5 percent in the first round, Nawrocki will attract no more than 10 percent of voters from each of them, while Trzaskowski should gain 70 percent from the leader of Razem and 85 percent from Biejat.

Nawrocki would also get 50 percent from the other candidates, and 33 percent would go to Trzaskowski. 

In total, according to the sociologist’s forecast, Karol Nawrocki collects 9.237 million votes. Rafał Trzaskowski 8.985 million. This result gives Nawrocki victory in the ratio of 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent, writes Polsat News.