Just three weeks before the first round of Poland’s presidential election, a new poll from OGB Pro reveals a major shift in voter sentiment, with conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki rapidly closing the gap on Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski.
The survey, conducted before major rallies by both leading candidates this weekend, shows Trzaskowski, the current Warsaw mayor and favorite of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, still leading but with significantly reduced support.
According to the poll, 34 percent of respondents back Trzaskowski, a drop of 1.4 percentage points compared to OGB Pro’s earlier survey from mid-April.
Meanwhile, Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, has seen his support climb to 31 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points. The gap between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki has now shrunk to just over three points, the narrowest margin seen yet in the campaign.
Sławomir Mentzen, the Confederation candidate, has experienced the sharpest decline. His support dropped to 14 percent, a steep fall of 6.1 percentage points compared to early April, and a significant drop from the 21 percent backing he had in February. His weakening position appears to be further polarizing the contest between the two leading candidates.
Other contenders have seen minor increases in support. Szymon Hołownia now polls at 5.4 percent, up two points. Magdalena Biejat has risen to 3.7 percent, Adrian Zandberg stands at 3.4 percent, Krzysztof Stanowski at 2.3 percent, and Marek Jakubiak at 1.3 percent. Only Grzegorz Braun experienced a decline, falling to 3.3 percent.
The OGB Pro survey was conducted after two key candidate debates in Końskie but before two major campaign events: Nawrocki’s electoral convention in Łódź and Trzaskowski’s rally in Poznań.
Speaking to RMF24 Radio, Paweł Szefernaker, head of Nawrocki’s campaign team, promised an unexpected result. “I guarantee that we will surprise many times within three weeks,” he said. Szefernaker also revealed that President Andrzej Duda’s surprise appearance at Nawrocki’s campaign event was a personal decision, following an invitation from Nawrocki himself.
Szefernaker said the decision reflected Duda’s frustration with the current government. “The government of Donald Tusk, which did not want to cooperate with the president, in a vulgar way broke all the rules established in Polish politics for years,” he said.
During his speech, President Duda praised Nawrocki as “a man who will do everything so that Poland is an honest country, a strong country on the international stage” and as someone who would help reinforce Poland’s position within the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Duda added that the 42-year-old historian “knows what Poland’s interests are” and would defend them vigorously.
With the gap between the two leading candidates shrinking rapidly, the presidential race has entered a decisive and unpredictable phase ahead of the May 18 vote.
