The surprise growth of the Polish economy

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Economists had foreseen that 2018 will see an overall slowdown of the Polish economy. The market consensus saw a 1.0 percent quarter-to-quarter increase in GDP and a 4.7 percent year-on-year increase in the unadjusted season. 

Meanwhile GUS reported a PKB increase of 1.7 percent quarter-to-quarter and 5.7 year-on-year year after the seasonal adjustment. The increase in the unadjusted season amounted to 5.1 percent year-on-year – the same amount as the preceding quarter. This is the highest annual GDP dynamic in the last 10 years.

This is the highest annual GDP dynamic in the last 10 years

Rafał Benecki, a Bank ING economist foresees that the 3rdquarter of 2018 will be the last to see an over 5 percent GDP increase. He predicts that the 4thquarter and 2019 will see a deceleration of the economy. This is due to a decrease in export and a deceleration of international trade, which will hit the open European economy, the German economy and Polish companies connected to them. 

The numbers published today are a so-called quick estimate. They may be revised. The regular GDP estimate for the 3rdquarter for 2018 will arrive on the 30thof November. Then it will be possible to see where this surprise growth has come from as there will be more details and statistics concerning matters such as: consumption, investments, supply, public spending and international trade. 

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