A Trump White House “could destroy Germany,” and by extension, harm Poland’s economy, argues Polish media outlet Gazeta Prawna. The main weapon Trump is expected to wield against the EU is tariffs.
“The introduction of 10 percent tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. will hit the EU’s largest economy and Poland’s main trading partner the hardest,” writes Gazeta Prawna, with the headline of its piece entitled “Trump could destroy Germany.”
“After the Republican’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, experts are beginning to adjust economic scenarios to the expected changes in the economic policy of the United States. The biggest change is to be the introduction of 10-20 percent tariffs on goods imported to the U.S.,” the paper adds.
The Polish report cites Goldman Sachs, which believes a Trump administration will selectively target products from the EU, but may not hit all of them with tariffs. However, a key industry, the automotive sector, will almost certainly be hit with at least 10 percent in tariffs.
Trump, who is the self-proclaimed “tariff man,” will almost certainly hit the German economy hardest with any automotive tariffs. Experts believe it will shrink Germany’s GDP by 0.6 percent.
“While the 10 percent across-the-board tariff is a clear risk, our baseline expectation is that Trump imposes a more limited set of tariffs on Europe, including on autos-related imports worth $80 billion, worth 0.9 percent of EU exports,” Goldman Sachs analysts published in a note on Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs is not the only one making such predictions. IW, a German economic institute, stated that German GDP will slide by 1.5 percent within the next three years, while the ifo economic institute estimated losses of €33 billion for Germany due to Trump’s proposals.
With Germany already facing incredible economic chaos and the collapse of the ruling government, the last thing Berlin needs is a damaging trade war with the U.S., however, that may be exactly what lies ahead.
In addition, what these reports do not consider is that Trump and the EU might be headed to a political and trade war, as there is more at stake than the mere market. In such a scenario, tariffs and sanctions could quickly ratchet up. For instance, threats to censor and fine Elon Musk’s X could serve as a trigger, but there are many such scenarios.
Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has previously questioned whether U.S. support for NATO could come into question if the EU moved forward with efforts to target Musk’s platform, saying that allies must make a commitment to free speech or they cannot rely on U.S. military support. If military support for NATO is on the table, increased tariffs likely are as well.
Given that Poland’s economy is intertwined with Germany’s, Poland could also take a hit from any tariffs, including any direct tariffs on Polish goods.
