Concerning predictions about the future, I am a Marxist. Of course, I am not a Karl Marxist, but a Groucho Marxist.
That comedian Groucho had once said that only a fool would make predictions, especially about the future. And you know what? He was right.
However, I am going to make an exception and risk several predictions about the year 2021. What it will bring us, or fail to bring us, in several countries in alphabetical order.
United States
Joe Biden, who ran as a moderate, will govern as a left-wing radical. However, radical “woke” progressives, as good Jacobins, will turn against each other and against “good ol’ Joe” too.
Austria
Chancellor Sebastian Kurz is going to continue to prove himself to be a brilliant political talent. He will be a great Austrian chancellor, one day.
Belarus
Lukashenko will remain in power this year.
Cuba
Raúl Castro will die this year. Cuba.led by communist apparatchiks, will move slowly but steadily towards capitalism.
Czechia
Prime Minister Andrej Babiš will win plurality in the October national elections, but will have a hard time finding coalition partners for a coalition majority government. The incumbent opposition will have a hard time to decide who should be the next prime minister: a Civic Democrat (center-right) Fiala, or a Pirate (progressive left) Bartoš. That may just create an opening for Babiš once again.
European Union
The less said about it, the better.
France
President Emmanuel Macron would like to play the role of primus inter pares in Europe, but at best, he would be secundus. Primus is gonna to continue to be the chancellor of Germany.
Germany
The candidate of CDU/CSU for the next chancellor of Germany is not going to be Armin Laschet from CDU, but Markus Söder from the CSU.
Hungary
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will continue to call for a common political alliance of Visegrád Four countries inside the EU, Poland will agree, Czechia and Slovakia will rhetorically disagree, but in reality agree.
Iran
Supreme Leader Khamenei will die this year. Who will replace him? No idea.
Italy
…shall remain the European country with a combination of the most tasty and healthy cuisine. In a competition for the most delicious cuisine, France may win. However, if the best tasting and healthiest cuisine in Europe is considered, Italy is the clear winner.
Poland
…will probably replace Hungary as the country European left-liberal elites love to hate.
Russia
Marquis de Custine wrote his friend in the 40s of the 19th century: “Dear friend, if you have an unhappy son, send him to Russia. Everybody who returns home from Russia is a happy man.” That will remain true in 2021, as it has been true for the last 180 years.
Slovakia
The incumbent coalition government shall not break up this year. Progressives shall remain marginal.
Switzerland
… will remain a beautiful and boring country as it has always been for the last 170 years.
United Kingdom (Great Britain)
H. M. Queen Elizabeth shall ask her son Prince Charles to serve as the prince-regent and relieve her of her royal duties at the occasion of her 95th birthday anniversary. People across the globe will realize that she has been one of just a couple of head-of-states whose citizens or subjects have been lucky enough never to be ashamed of her. Whom else could be said that about? Perhaps the last two emperors of Japan.
