The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is at an all-time high: The party is already polling at 29 percent in Germany, while Friedrich Merz’s government is in a deeper and deeper crisis. According to Bence Bauer, the director of the German-Hungarian Institute for European Cooperation, the German political “firewall” may even collapse in the fall, and it is also possible that the AfD will achieve a federal breakthrough after taking power at the state level. This means Germany may be saying goodbye to Friedrich Merz sooner rather than later.
Bauer, who spoke to Hungarian news outlet Mandiner, referenced several recent polls, all showing a similar trend: Support for AfD, which rose to an all-time high. Measurements by INSA and Forsa both indicated record high figures, with one institute measuring the party at 29 percent and the other at 28 percent. At the same time, research also shows that support for the government coalition led by Friedrich Merz is weakening week by week.
Not only is the AfD growing, but disappointed Social Democrat (SPD) and CDU voters are sharply distancing themselves from their old party, according to the expert.
“The government was shown a red card, the radical right is advancing,” said Bence Bauer.
Bauer said that an early parliamentary election was held in the Federal Republic of Germany on Feb. 23, 2025, in which the CDU/CSU party alliance still achieved 28 percent, while the AfD won 20 percent at the time. The latter was considered a record even at that time, but since then, the political mood has changed significantly.
According to Bauer, the poor performance of the federal government led by Friedrich Merz is behind the current processes. As he put it, only 15 percent of Germans consider the work of the federal government to be good, while 84 percent think things are going in the wrong direction.
🇩🇪JUST IN: Another record-breaking poll for the anti-immigration AfD party, this time in the regional state of Saxony.
The AfD stands at 42%.
The AfD soared 7 points since the last poll. If the AfD were to hit 46%, it could rule the state without a coalition.
The AfD now has… pic.twitter.com/9kS2ZEKtMq
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 21, 2026In his opinion, as a result, the AfD has strengthened significantly, which some surveys already put at 29 percent, nine percentage points higher than what the party achieved during the elections. At the same time, support for the CDU fell from 28 percent to 22 percent.
The expert emphasized that all of this is still poll data and not actual election results. As he said, elections must be won, not polls. However, he added that if the German government continues to perform so poorly, the AfD may even continue to strengthen.
In German politics, he said, many believe that the traditional political order can be completely overturned if the AfD reaches 30 percent support, while the CDU/CSU sinks to around 20 percent.
The AfD is united
Bence Bauer also spoke about the fact that the unity within the AfD is currently clearly strengthened by its success. As an example, he mentioned Saxony-Anhalt, where the party’s support already stands at 42 percent. According to him, in addition to such results, few people question the policy of the current party leadership. At the same time, he believes that if the AfD really wants to govern, it will be forced to move to the center, to represent a more moderate tone and politics.
He emphasized that it is easy to make radical or even unfeasible proposals in opposition, and more radical actors can still be found in the AfD. He claimed Björn Höcke from Thuringia fit this category, but noted that the party is extremely heterogeneous, stating that its supporters include those with more conservative values as well as those with more liberal and far-right tendencies.
🇩🇪🔴Multiculturalism must end, and if possible, be reversed, said AfD leader Björn Höcke in an interview that now has over 5.6 million views.
"And if I postulate that the state, centrally and above all, has to guarantee the security of its citizens, then I must end the… pic.twitter.com/uFUOB6BZ1m
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) May 25, 2026He said that these politicians are held together by success and growing support.
According to Bauer, the situation would change radically if the party were to take a government position. Then it would no longer be possible to pursue “wish politics,” but would have to adapt to administrative and political realities. He believes that if, for example, in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD were to enter the government or even form a state cabinet alone, then in practice it would have to pursue a much more traditional, pragmatic policy. According to him, the party’s current popularity stems in part from being in opposition everywhere and rejecting many of the things that the German political mainstream has represented in recent years.
He described the situation as the AfD currently being in political quarantine, which means that for many, it plays the role of “forbidden fruit.”
Weidel is becoming increasingly popular in Germany
The expert also addressed AfD co-leader Alice Weidel’s personal popularity. He recalled that according to one survey, 33 percent of voters would choose her as chancellor, while only 22 percent would support Friedrich Merz.
Bauer called this a special situation. According to him, Merz’s support is practically the same as the current support of the CDU/CSU, which he believes is a particularly weak figure for an incumbent chancellor.
In the case of Weidel, on the other hand, she personally seems more moderate than her party itself. According to Bauer, Weidel represents a more middle-of-the-road policy, which is why she is not only acceptable to AfD voters but is also able to appeal to supporters of other conservative or smaller parties.
Bauer believes that she can even get voters from supporters of the FDP or other smaller conservative formations, and there may even be those from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance who would consider her acceptable as chancellor under the circumstances.
Fateful state elections are coming
Voting will be held in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, and after that, there will be elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. According to Bauer, these elections may even shake the stability of federal politics.
He pointed out that in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD currently stands at 42 percent, while the CDU enjoys 24 percent, the Left 13 percent, and the SPD only 6 percent. This would give a total of 43 percent to the three other parties combined, compared to 42 percent for the AfD.
Bauer emphasized that in a proportional election system, a party can obtain an absolute majority if it is stronger than all other parties that enter the parliament combined. In his view, the AfD is already very close to this situation.
He added that if the SPD were to drop out of the state parliament, it would further ease the situation of the AfD. Moreover, according to him, it is not even impossible for the party to obtain an absolute majority, but even if this did not happen, he sees that the AfD could form a minority government with the support of some CDU representatives or through ad hoc voting.
Bauer said he believes an AfD-led or fully AfD government will be formed in Magdeburg from September. He adds that with the current political balance of power, it is no longer a realistic scenario for all parties to unite against the AfD with the CDU leadership.
The federal government may fall
According to Bauer, an AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt would have serious consequences at the federal level as well. He said that in this case the so-called “firewall policy,” that is, the strategy that excludes cooperation with the AfD, would collapse.
Bauer also noted that in September 2024, the AfD already achieved strong results in Saxony with 30 percent and Thuringia with 33 percent. Even then, this seriously shook the traffic light coalition led by Olaf Scholz, which collapsed two months later.
Now, however, Bauer stressed: “We are talking about an even stronger AfD and even weaker government support than under Olaf Scholz.”
Therefore, according to Bauer, it is easy to imagine that after a possible breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt, there will also be a “tabula rasa” in federal politics. According to him, either the CDU will try to continue governing alone without the SPD, or early elections may take place, as a result of which a completely new federal government may be formed in Germany by the spring of 2027.
When asked whether Merz’s government could take measures to reverse the current trend by autumn, Bauer replied that he does not consider this realistic.
According to him, while Merz sees Germany’s problems accurately and diagnoses the country’s situation correctly, recognition alone is not enough.
Bauer said it may be enough for a political analyst to understand the problems, but a chancellor must also act. However, according to the expert, there is currently neither the political will nor an adequate majority for this. According to him, the CDU/CSU coalition partner, the SPD, does not support the deep reforms that are needed.
He cited the issues of the labor market, the social welfare system, infrastructure, and migration as examples. In his opinion, only a wider parliamentary majority, even including the AfD, would be able to bring real changes in these matters. However, as he emphasized, the Catch-22 trap is present, with other parties still not willing to cooperate with the AfD.
Bauer finally mentioned that “Friedrich Merz also tied his own political future to the fact that he does not cooperate with the AfD in any way. Therefore, if another political constellation were to emerge in Germany in the future, the new decisions would probably no longer be implemented under the chancellorship of Merz, but under the leadership of another CDU or even a completely different political actor.”
