Analysis: PiS is still doing well, but the opposition is on their heels

Although Law and Justice (PiS) won the popular vote, the Civic Coalition (KO) will probably govern the regional councils (“sejmiks”). In an interview for TVP Info, political marketing expert, Dr. Sergiusz Trzeciak discusses how the local election results will translate into reality.

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“We may talk about the great success of Law and Justice, because they overtook their opponents. We must remember, however, that it isn’t important who wins the elections, but who will govern the regional councils,” Trzeciak explains.

He underlined, that “with these results, PiS will have the minority of regional councils. I believe that with KO’s ability to form coalitions with the peasant party (PSL), those groups will have majorities.”

“Local elections have shown that PiS still has high support in society. It is evident, however, that the remaining parties are >>on their heels<<”. If one were to look at the distribution of votes, the trend of KO’s candidates having an advantage in large towns remains. PiS is winning in areas up to 20,000 inhabitants and the city electorate is still a challenge for the party,” Trzeciak notices.

With these results, PiS will have the minority of regional councils. I believe that with KO’s ability to form coalitions with the peasant party (PSL), those groups will have majorities

“A big surprise is the entry results showing Rafał Trzaskowski’s first round victory in Warsaw. Even the expected KO victory in Łódź is impressive, because 70 percent is not something to take lightly. I have no doubts, that these differences are huge,” Trzeciak admitted.

“It’s hard to tell, whether this year’s municipal elections can be a test-run of next year’s parliamentary elections. Let’s remember, that the unofficial 7 percent advantage next year may be completely different. This may be a warning for the government, that PiS’s double digit poll advantage over Civic Platform may have vanished,” the expert underlines.

“We’ve now had a very intensive campaign, in which PM Mateusz Morawiecki and his ministers have taken part in. Another surprise could be PSL’s result, who was polled to have a significantly lower result,” Trzeciak claims.

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