Incumbent President Andrzej Duda won 41.8 percent of the votes, beating Rafał Trzaskowski, who trailed with 30.4 percent, and independent Szymon Hołownia with 13.3 percent, according to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos during Sunday’s voting.
Right-wing Confederation’s Krzysztof Bosak won 7.4 percent, the Left’s Robert Biedroń took 2.9 percent, and the Polish People’s Party leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz took 2.6 percent, finishing last among the major candidates. Voting saw a record-high turnout, estimated at 62.9 percent.
If confirmed, the result will have President Duda facing off with Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski in a second-round of voting scheduled for July 12th.
The result amounts to a big failure for the Civic Platform candidate Rafał Trzaskowski. Finishing second, of course, with around 30 percent is the dream of every candidate below him. But ultimately, this result resembles the level of support that Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska reached in polling. Kidawa-Błońska was eventually replaced by Trzaskowski.
Furthermore, this tally is even less than Duda’s result when he challenged Bronisław Komorowski in 2015 in the first round. Back then, Duda won 34.76 percent over Komorowski’s 33.77 percent.
No one can claim this as a stunning victory. There is no feeling of freshness, no ground gained. Moreover, despite a massive campaign effort to promote the Warsaw mayor, Trzaskowski turned out to be unpalatable for many non-PiS voters.