Poland’s position on the EU budget veto is considerably stronger than it might have appeared at first, says foreign affairs specialist Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski.
Żurawski vel Grajewski argues that Poland should win its fight over deleting rule of law conditionality from the EU budget because Southern Europe urgently needs the funds to be activated via the EU Recovery Fund.
Żurawski vel Grajewski feels that Portugal, Italy, France and Spain have been severely hit by the pandemic and will put pressure on the Germans to back down over the rule of law mechanism in order for the recovery fund to be activated as soon as possible.
The Polish government also seems to be on solid ground domestically, with 57 percent of voters support Poland exercising the veto over the EU budget to prevent the rule of law conditionality. Only 20 percent take the opposite view.
Poland’s position appears to be only strengthening. Many countries are skeptical about the need for the rule of law mechanism that complicates the budget debate.
The expert argues that there are just seven weeks left until the end of the year and the German EU presidency. Portugal, the next EU presidency state, and one with a national debt running at 137 percent of GDP, needs the recovery fund money far more than Poland does, which has the debt running at less than 60 percent and can therefore raise loan capital on the international markets. Poll/United Surveys: 57 percent of voters support Poland exercising the veto over the EU budget to prevent the rule of law conditionality. Only 20 percent take the opposite view. This is why Żurawski vel Grajewski is convinced that Southern European states such as Portugal will put pressure on Germany and the group of frugal states to unblock the budget mechanism. However, he acknowledges that he is basing his supposition on EU treaties being honored.
Using the veto is not a comfortable situation for Poland, but he believes it had no choice if it was to avoid having the release of EU funds being dependent on political criteria. Poland would be weakening its position in the EU and its sovereignty if it accepted the German proposal.
“It would imply the French and Germans being saints for them not to use such a mechanism in their own interests against us,” he said.
The expert noted that in Germany, France and Spain, judges are selected with the participation of politicians, yet this is seen as being unacceptable in Poland. This absence of equality of treatment cannot be accepted and transferred to other areas of EU activity.
He feels that Poland is in a position to “win this game”. He also rejects the Polish opposition’s view that Poland will lose out.
Żurawski vel Grajewski believes that “the old budget (2014-2020) was more generous for Poland than the 2021-2027 version” and therefore “Poland is under no pressure to capitulate over the matter”.
