Peter Javůrek writes that Trump’s negotiation technique is fairly simple: after a unilateral cancellation of an agreement and escalating the situation the other side comes with an alternative solution.
He adds that this technique can be successful if it is used by someone who is irreplaceable in the field of global security or world economics, ideally in a situation of one versus the other.
From Trump’s point of view, negotiation is much easier if the European Union is atomized, making good deals is less problematic with Germany or Slovakia than with the European Union.
The issue is whether the European Union can find an effective way of defense against the economic outcomes of Trump’s sanctions against third parties. Like in the case of Iran, because in this situation Trump’s best interest is to marginalize other factors and lock out everyone else from the negotiations.
The new wave of sanctions against Iran affect everyone who is conducting business with the Middle Eastern country – they will be unable to do the same with the USA.
If Europe would cede his activities with Iran despite the existing nuclear agreement, Trump would reach his goal – force other countries to follow his strategy without them even negotiating.
The European Union has a strong geopolitical motivation to continue business, but the question is whether Europe can find an effective way of defense against Trump’s sanctions and stay united – and cannot pretend that he doesn’t need the USA when talking about security and business.