According to a forecast produced by the European Commission, the Polish economy will enjoy a significant boost in its GDP in 2024 and 2025, despite slower-than-expected growth in 2023.
The European Commission cut its GDP growth forecast for Poland to 0.4 percent for 2023, slightly down from its previous estimate of 0.5 percent, while it maintained its estimate for 2024 at 2.7 percent and expects growth to reach 3.2 percent in 2025.
“The Polish economy remained weak in the first half of 2023 but is set to return to growth in the third quarter and expand by 0.4 percent over 2023,” the European Commission wrote in its report.
It added that growth is under pressure due to falling private consumption and a negative contribution from inventories. “Household spending is held back due to high inflation and low consumer confidence,” Commission analysts wrote.
At the same time, they noted that net exports are contributing positively to growth due to a significant fall in imports, while exports decreased less than expected in the EC’s spring forecast.
The European Commission expects inflation to fall at a slower rate as a result of the phasing out of anti-inflationary measures and pay increases. Nevertheless, it expects inflation to fall to 6.2 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025.
It also expects public expenditures to continue to grow due to higher defense and social spending.
Last week, Poland’s central bank (NBP) updated its GDP growth forecasts for the country, saying it expected the economy to expand 0.3 percent this year, followed by 2.9 percent growth in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025.