After a challenging few months and a difficult loss of power, the Law and Justice Party (PiS) has not only regained its footing but has also gained strong momentum, clearly winning the local elections. Exit polls suggest that PiS’s result (33.7 percent) might even be better than in 2018 (32.3 percent).
Securing first place in elections to the regional assemblies is a significant political and psychological victory for PiS. It paves the way for success in the European elections and future victories, including in the presidential and parliamentary elections. This win suggests an acceleration in the wear and tear of the current ruling government.
The Civic Platform managed to maintain its result from the parliamentary elections (31.9 percent). However, the Third Way alliance (Hołownia + PSL) with a result of 13.5 percent cannot claim success, as five and a half years ago, PSL alone exceeded 12 percent. The Confederation disappointed at 7.5 percent, showing it was clearly unable to win over PiS voters. If it could not outperform now, it may never succeed in its efforts to break out. The Left (6.8 percent) also has no reason to celebrate.
Warsaw’s liberal mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, won in the first round, bolstering his aspirations for next year’s presidential elections and weakening his critics. PiS candidate Tobiasz Bocheński received significantly fewer votes than Patryk Jaki did five years ago, just 19-20 percent versus over 28 percent. This indicates that PiS still has not found a way to appeal to urban voters and that a friendly, conflict-free campaign does not increase PiS’ results. This is an important lesson that the United Right desperately needed. However, Tobiasz Bocheński himself has shown his good side, proving to be a likeable, hardworking, and creative politician, and this certainly is not the end of his political career.
Full results are not yet available — they are expected by Wednesday at the latest — and it is unknown in how many regional assemblies PiS will rule or co-rule. However, it is evident that the “democratic camp,” ruling with “tear gas, revolution, and batons,” is losing momentum astonishingly quickly.
A return to the patterns before 2015, marked by brutality and cynicism, is proving to be a suicidal course for the left-liberal coalition. If, after winning the parliamentary elections, the parties of Dec. 13, which is the date of Donald Tusk’s government’s swearing-in and also the date of the martial law imposition by the communists in 1981, merely maintain their status quo, it signals that an iceberg is looming on the horizon.
