Poland’s public finances improve under conservative rule

Photo: G. Adamczyk
By Grzegorz Adamczyk
2 Min Read

Poland’s ratio of public debt to GDP two years ago, during the pandemic, reached a high of 57.2 percent, but thanks to economic growth outstripping the rate of borrowing, it has been falling ever since.

For example, in the last quarter, public debt rose by 25.8 billion zloty (€5.5 billion), whereas GDP increased by 115.2 billion zloty (€24.6 billion). The nominal rise in GDP has, of course, been aided by the rise in the rate of inflation, as it increases the value of GDP without immediately increasing the value of the debt. 

The ratio’s indicator has fallen below the level inherited from the previous liberal government at the end of 2015, refuting the claim that the current conservative government has increased Poland’s national debt. In fact, it is now more favorable, with debt falling in the third quarter of this year to 50.3 percent of GDP from 51.5 percent

Most economists expect the ratio to rise in 2023, which is due to the expected downturn in the economy, whereas public spending is expected to continue to increase, especially in an election year. 

It can be argued that Poland has no major problem with its public debt in any event, which has remained well under control for years. During the last 20 years, for most of that period, it has been kept in the range of the 45 to 55 percent of GDP bracket, well below that of many of Poland’s EU partners.

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