Statistics Poland (GUS) has released detailed data showing that Poland’s economy expanded by 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period last year. This marks a notable improvement from the 0.6 percent contraction recorded in the second quarter of 2023.
Bartosz Sawicki, an analyst at fintech Cinkciarz.pl, highlighted that only Cyprus, Croatia and Denmark grew faster within the European Union during this period. Sawicki attributes this growth largely to strong consumer spending, which remains the primary driver of Poland’s economic expansion. The growth in individual consumption increased from 4.6 percent to 4.7 percent year-over-year.
However, he pointed out the ongoing weakness in investment and net exports.
The analyst explained that the rise in consumption is fueled by several key factors, including loose fiscal policy, wage increases in the public sector and a generally strong labor market. Following a sharp decline in inflation, real wage growth in enterprises has reached double digits.
Looking ahead, Sawicki predicts that Poland’s economy should grow by around 3 percent for the entire year, with individual consumption rebounding close to 5 percent. He views this as a solid outcome, especially given the economic downturn in Germany. Sawicki also forecasts that growth could approach 4 percent next year as investment contributions increase and Western Europe’s economy improves.
Regarding monetary policy, the relatively high economic growth, strong labor market, and potential inflationary pressures will likely prevent the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) from easing its stance or discussing interest rate cuts until the middle of next year. Sawicki expects that interest rate cuts will resume only after consumer price index (CPI) growth, which could rise above 6 percent year-over-year, returns to a downward trend.
Sawicki also discussed the outlook for Poland’s currency, noting that the RPP’s stance underpins the złoty’s attractiveness, contrasting sharply with the global trend of monetary easing. Cinkciarz.pl forecasts that the euro will be valued at approximately 4.25 złotys (currently 4.29 złotys) by year’s end, while the U.S. dollar will be around 3.83 złotys (currently 3.87 złotys). However, Sawicki cautions that currency exchange rates, particularly for the sharply undervalued dollar, may face upward corrections in the coming weeks.
