According to a new IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita,” PM Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) and conservative Law and Justice (PiS), led by Jarosław Kaczyński, are losing support, although KO would still win an election held today. Meanwhile, the right-wing libertarian Confederation, a coalition of Sławomir Mentzen’s New Hope and Krzysztof Bosak’s National Movement, and Grzegorz Braun’s far-right Confederation of the Polish Crown are gaining strength.

Donald Tusk’s party received 30.1%, up 1.3 points over last month, PiS received 22%, a drop of 1.2 points, support for Confederation increased 1.2 points to 13.8%, and 9.2% said they would vote for Braun’s party, up two points.

The Left, which received 6.8% of the vote (-1.3), would also gain entry to the Sejm, while the Polish People’s Party (PSL) (4.2%), Razem (Together) (3.4%), and Polska 2050 (1.5%) would fall below the electoral threshold.

Nearly 10% (8.9%) of respondents did not know who they would vote for in a parliamentary election, while 60.7% expressed an intention to vote, including 38.6% “definitely” and 22.1% “probably.” Another 38.8% of survey participants indicated they would not vote, including 14.4% “probably” and 22.4% “definitely.”

The poll results show that the current government coalition would not win a majority after the next elections. The vote count, conducted by Jarosław Flis, a sociologist at the Jagiellonian University, indicates that the Civic Coalition would have 186 seats, while the Left would have 26. This represents a total of 212 seats in the Sejm.

A coalition of Law and Justice (PiS) (131 seats), Confederation (74), and Braun’s party (43) could rule, garnering 248 seats in the Sejm.

The survey was conducted on Feb. 27-28, 2026, using the CATI method (telephone interview) on a group of 1,073 people.