Although Poland’s GDP will shrink by 4.3 percent in 2020, this will be the smallest expected drop in the European Union amid the coronavirus crisis, according to the European Commission’s spring economic forecasts.
Overall, the EU’s combined GDP is expected to drop 7.4 percent in 2020.
In 2021, a speedy recovery is forecasted, with economic growth expected to resume in 2021. The report states that Poland’s GDP is expected to rise by 4.1 percent.
The European Commission also forecasts that unemployment in Poland will rise to 7.5 percent in 2020 compared to 3.3 percent in 2019. In 2021, it will drop back down to 5.3 percent.
Inflation in Poland is set to be 2.5 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2021. It was 2.1 percent in 2019.
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Our collective recovery will depend on continued strong and coordinated responses at EU and national level.
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There will also be an increase in public debt and deficit in Poland in 2020.
Debt will rise up to 58 percent of GDP and the deficit in the government and municipal institution sector will grow to 9.5 percent of GDP, according to information published by the European Commission. The public debt in 2019 amounted to 46 percent of GDP.
The European Commission points out, however, that despite the growth of the deficit in 2020, it will drop down to 3.8 percent in 2021. The deficit was 0.7 percent in 2019.
Private consumption will significantly decrease in 2020, as will most likely private investments.