For the first time ever, a poll shows the Law and Justice (PiS) candidate, Karol Nawrocki, winning the presidential race against his Civic Coalition (KO) opponent, Rafal Trzaskowski.
The poll, conducted by the National Research Group, shows that in the first round of elections, the current mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, would come out on top with 35.51 percent of the votes, while Nawrocki would earn 31.73 percent.
In third place, would be the right-wing Confederation, which earned 15.68 percent of the vote.
However, the vote would then move to a second round if nobody wins outright, which would pit Nawrocki against Trzaskowski. In such a scenario, the pollster indicated Nawrocki would eke out a victory with 50.6 percent of the vote versus 49.4 percent for Trzaskowski.
The difference would amount to less than 200,000 votes. Undecided voters were not counted.
Most polls put Trzaskowski on top, often by a five to ten-point margin, but one of the major factors that could swing the election towards Nawrocki is the role of Confederation voters, who lean conservative and are most likely to fall into Nawrocki’s camp. However, many of them may also sit out the election.
If the left-liberal camp wins the election, it would give it considerable power to implement its agenda in Polish society, as it already controls parliament and the role of prime minister.
Elections are scheduled for May 18, 2025.
