In a recent poll conducted by United Surveys for the Wirtualna Polska news outlet, participants were asked, “If the presidential election were next Sunday, who would you vote for?” Though no official nominations have been made, the survey outlined the current likely candidates.
The results indicate that left-liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Platform) would lead the first round with 32.4 percent of the vote. Close behind, former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (Law and Justice, PiS) would receive 27.6 percent of the vote, suggesting a potential runoff between these candidates from Civic Platform (KO) and Law and Justice (PiS), as neither would secure a majority initially.
Krzysztof Bosak from the Confederation party is in third place with 15.6 percent, showing notable growth. Szymon Hołownia of centrist Poland 2050 (Third Way alliance) trails with 11.2 percent of support.
Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk of the Left has 7.9 percent of the vote, while 5.3 percent of respondents remain undecided, either choosing “I don’t know” or “Hard to say.”
In comparison to earlier surveys, all politicians have improved their performance except for Szymon Hołownia. Krzysztof Bosak’s numbers have increased the most, by 6.6 percentage points, and the number of undecided voters has decreased.
Professor Rafał Chwedoruk from the University of Warsaw commented on the survey, noting that the presidential poll results mirror those from party-based surveys. “Rafał Trzaskowski remains in a strong position, as combining the votes for Morawiecki and Bosak still leaves him ahead in a potential second round, bolstered by support from leftist and Third Way voters,” he explained.
For the Law and Justice party, the poll results are mixed. “There’s little prospect of overtaking Rafał Trzaskowski,” said Chwedoruk, but he also noted that PiS maintains a safe distance from Hołownia. He remarked on Krzysztof Bosak’s result as impressive, attributing it to the Confederation’s role as a protest party amid the Ukrainian crisis and economic uncertainties.
Chwedoruk also highlighted Szymon Hołownia’s struggles, pointing out that contradictions in his party’s stance on abortion and legislative liberalization have impacted his support.
When asked who might ultimately be the PiS candidate, Chwedoruk suggested that the party is facing a challenging decision. “Older members of the party might be satisfied with a solid second-place finish, but younger members might view Bosak’s performance as a significant setback. The party is currently in a deadlock with no clear path to victory,” he concluded.
