Polish inflation lowest in 3 years as it falls to 3.9%, but experts expect it to rise again

By Grzegorz Adamczyk
1 Min Read

The annual rate of inflation fell to 3.9 percent per annum, the lowest inflation reading since February 2021, according to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS). The drop in inflation from 6.2 percent in December exceeded market forecasts of 4.1 percent.

Economists expect the inflation rate to continue falling to under 3 percent in the spring. However, analysts think that as a result of substantial pay increases and the phasing out of state subsidies of energy prices, as well as the end of zero VAT applied to food products, inflationary pressures are likely to return. 

Analysts from the central bank (NBP) fear that unless the government acts to offset the effects of the pay rises and the phasing out of price support, inflation is likely to reach 4 to 5 percent. 

Compared with December, January’s consumer price index rose by 0.4 percent (the rise was 0.1 percent in December). In year-over-year terms, prices rose across the board, except for fuel, which was 8.1 percent cheaper than a year ago. Meanwhile, food prices rose by 4.9 percent, and alcohol and tobacco by 8.8 percent. 

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