Ukrainian troops have nearly completely surrounded the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region, which they are trying to recapture, according to a map published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Supplies to Lyman, which is currently occupied by Russian forces, can only pass through a narrow corridor through the village of Torske, which is already under fire from Ukrainian forces, according to the Russian-language version of the BBC, the ISW reports.
While the ISW has been accused of being pro-West, so far its assessment near the beginning of the conflict that Russia did not have the necessary forces to capture Donbass and Luhansk has proven mostly correct. Following a serious defeat in the Kharkiv region, Russia has been forced to mobilize 300,000 reservists; however, there are questions about whether Russia’s military technology is up to the task. Russian tanks, intelligence, and aircraft have proven woefully inadequate against NATO’s more advanced weaponry.
The ISW notes that Russian military bloggers are predicting imminent defeat for Russian forces in Lyman, as Ukrainian troops are close to encircling the city. The armed forces of Ukraine are fighting in the suburb of Torske, which is only 12 kilometers from Lyman.
The fall of Lyman will probably have severe consequences for Russian forces located north of the Donetsk region and west of the Luhansk region. American experts believe It may allow the armed forces of Ukraine to begin threatening Russian positions on the western border of Luhansk and in the Severodonetsk and Lysychansk regions.
“The Russian defense ministry did not talk about the latest Russian losses in the Lyman area and was not prepared for the fall of this part of the front, which is likely to worsen the already low morale,” writes the ISW report.
The institute notes that a similar situation developed before the defeat of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. That led to panic among Russian soldiers in the entire eastern direction.
“The ensuing discontent in the Russian nationalist information space likely prompted the Kremlin to order a partial mobilization,” writes the ISW.