Prior to the pandemic, some economists half-jokingly spoke about how bulletproof the Polish economy is. They referred to the fact that Poland was not part of the economic slowdown affecting the Eurozone.
Although the Polish economy suffered its first recession since the 1990s due to COVID, it survived the crisis in much better shape than most of Europe and has chances for a very strong recovery.
Both in 2021 and 2022, Polish economic activity will grow by 5%. Nevertheless, the price for this economic boom will be a rising inflation rate – it will not drop below 4% over the next three quarters.
In the middle of 2022, the rise in prices will slow down, but mainly due to the higher base of reference in that year.
This is the scenario which stems from the collection of forecasts from 35 analyst teams and individual analysists prepared by Rzeczpospolita daily.
Three months ago, forecasts were slightly more cautious, although the majority of analysists expected no more severe anti-pandemic restrictions to be enacted in the second half of 2021. Today, that is not so obvious.
According to a recent report by economists from bank PKO BP, the next potential waves of restrictions will be far less severe for the economy than previously. This is due to adaptive processes (companies and consumers learned how to act in restriction conditions) and the increasingly lower degree of adhering to restrictions. Experts from PKO BP also believe that, owing to vaccination programs, it will be possible to avoid the most harmful economic restrictions, such as limiting the activity of shops and shopping malls.
During the next three quarters, one can expect a 5.4% year-to-year growth when it comes to household spending, instead of the previously predicted 4.9% increase from Spring forecasts.
In this situation, the biggest threat to economic recovery is supply barriers, not the pandemic itself.
Meanwhile, bank Millennium economists point out that there is a risk of inflation fixating at a higher level because companies may be encouraged to throw growing costs on consumers during a period of strong economic rebound.