The deeply unpopular British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, announced his resignation on Monday morning, but despite his upcoming departure, the right may have little to cheer about.
During a speech outside Downing Street, Starmer announced he was stepping down after holding office since July 7, 2024. In that election, his Labour Party won 412 seats, securing a comfortable majority and decimating the Tories, who had governed Britain since 2010.
Starmer revealed on the morning of Monday, June 22, that he had already spoken with King Charles III to inform him of his decision. The Labour Party’s National Executive Committee will now develop a timetable for the election of a new leader, who will also become Prime Minister. He stressed that this process should be completed by the end of the summer holidays. Until then, Starmer will remain at the helm of the British government.
According to Reuters, the main favorite to replace Starmer is the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who won a seat in the House of Commons during the Makerfield constituency by-election in northwest England on June 18, defeating Nigel Farage’s party.
The right now has a challenger
Burnham may pose a grave challenge to Restore Britain and Reform UK, the two main right-wing parties running against the British left.
Under Starmer, multiple polls predicted a strong majority for Reform UK, with some even forecasting a blowout election victory. However, the rise of Restore Britain had already siphoned off a number of voters from Reform UK, narrowing Farage’s lead.
Now, with Starmer gone, some polls show Reform UK barely leading Labour in a general election. A new poll from Politico shows Farage winning 27 percent of the vote versus 20 percent for Labour under Starmer’s current numbers — but when tested against Burnham, Labour’s chances receive a significant boost. Some within Labour even describe Burnham as a “Reform Slayer,” as he polls better against Farage than anyone else in the party.
Nevertheless, the Politico article also describes an uphill battle for Burnham, given how far Labour has fallen out of favour with British voters during Starmer’s rule. Notably, Burnham is described as more left-wing than Starmer, who is categorized as a “centrist.”
Although the Tories are still seen as a formidable election force, they have long since discarded any semblance of right-wing politics. Nevertheless, they are also siphoning voters away from both Restore Britain and Reform UK, retaining voters who might lean personally to the right but still vote Conservative out of habit.
The combined effect of vote-splitting on the right and Burnham leading Labour could deliver a shock upset in favor of Labour, ending Farage’s dream of winning the office of prime minister.
British commentators point out that Starmer’s position has been weakening for months. More than 100 Labour MPs — around a quarter of the parliamentary party in the House of Commons — had publicly stated they wanted the prime minister to resign or set a timetable for his departure.
Labour Party members pointed to a total loss of trust in the head of government and his leadership abilities. The government had recently been rocked by a number of high-profile resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Defence Secretary John Healey.
Polling also showed that Labour members overwhelmingly wanted Burnham, nicknamed the “King of the North” after winning three consecutive mayoral terms. He is currently Labour’s most popular politician. His recent victory in the Makerfield seat also bodes poorly for Reform UK and Restore Britain; the constituency is predominantly white and working-class, representing the exact demographic that these two right-wing parties are seeking to win over from Labour.
